{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0bcab05-d8f2-4662-a3d5-4a3161f8fb96", "symbol": "CLF", "name": "Cleveland-Cliffs Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.274, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.333, "architecture_energy": 13.914, "architecture_maturity": 24.133, "architecture_confidence": 56.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.17, "rotation_up": 45.47, "upward_expansion": 34.05, "deceleration": 41.21, "rotation_down": 28.95, "downward_expansion": 25.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.408667, 11.092909, 11.182619, 10.910172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.26, "trend_reference": 11.036333, "distance_from_trend": 0.110876, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.039295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.09442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167685, "excess_performance": -0.29331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059765, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118315, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030159, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167685, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84216169, "relative_activity": 0.880679, "balance": 0.72186, "dry_up": 1.406612, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14349, "annualized_volatility": 0.847608, "from_high_reference": -0.265868, "from_low_reference": 0.586028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.036333, "fair_value_reference": 13.039295, "structural_low": 7.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.082008, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030782, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.247013, "worst_return": -0.265728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080892, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249677, "worst_return": -0.114451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105012, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.645982, "worst_return": 0.032258, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.364185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004371, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249458, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"trend": 11.317, "fair_value": 13.160769, "relative_strength": -25.899892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.249494, "energy": 40.212866, "activity_lines": [ 10.308667, 11.242909, 10.864905, 10.890043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.28, "volume": 92791449, "typical_volume": 88201999.75, "trend": 11.185667, "fair_value": 13.117756, "relative_strength": -25.460477, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.345799, "energy": 42.531808, "activity_lines": [ 9.717333, 10.84, 10.760667, 10.758624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.93, "volume": 201733487, "typical_volume": 94243538.6, "trend": 11.122333, "fair_value": 13.084551, "relative_strength": -3.386591, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.415335, "energy": 22.768061, "activity_lines": [ 10.309333, 10.950545, 10.915381, 10.806645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.52, "volume": 159295737, "typical_volume": 97531919.55, "trend": 11.053, "fair_value": 13.054872, "relative_strength": -7.618694, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.61063, "energy": 15.466078, "activity_lines": [ 10.788, 10.957091, 11.021048, 10.832301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.26, "volume": 84216169, "typical_volume": 95626363.6, "trend": 11.036333, "fair_value": 13.039295, "relative_strength": -5.09442, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.332529, "energy": 13.914001, "activity_lines": [ 11.408667, 11.092909, 11.182619, 10.910172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }