{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0bce948-04f1-42fd-a1ba-a59895333706", "symbol": "ULVR", "name": "Unilever PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.41, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.948, "architecture_energy": 16.995, "architecture_maturity": 10.882, "architecture_confidence": 50.087, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.41, "rotation_up": 52.64, "upward_expansion": 44.34, "deceleration": 26.15, "rotation_down": 19.93, "downward_expansion": 14.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 4640.296333, 4590.762682, 4473.75438, 4510.977106 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4670.0, "trend_reference": 4619.046488, "distance_from_trend": 0.011031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4677.100688, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.10802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110325, "excess_performance": -0.16156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083285, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18443249, "relative_activity": 0.789415, "balance": 0.628396, "dry_up": 0.867378, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08716, "annualized_volatility": 0.247593, "from_high_reference": -0.157217, "from_low_reference": 0.291629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4619.046488, "fair_value_reference": 4677.100688, "structural_low": 3615.5885, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014542, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.014488, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.140817, "worst_return": -0.070209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047675, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.07063, "worst_return": -0.143116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024837, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.065849, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.220628, "worst_return": -0.083761, 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4555.506327, 4448.247589, 4507.847183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4670.0, "volume": 18443249, "typical_volume": 23363178.0, "trend": 4619.046488, "fair_value": 4677.100688, "relative_strength": -9.10802, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.947936, "energy": 16.994938, "activity_lines": [ 4640.296333, 4590.762682, 4473.75438, 4510.977106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }