{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c0be8c9e-8fae-4b0e-912c-d316d8df2ec0",
    "symbol": "SOR",
    "name": "Source Capital Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 93.328,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 21.929,
    "architecture_energy": 24.577,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.548,
    "architecture_confidence": 41.902,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.22,
        "rotation_up": 51.62,
        "upward_expansion": 40.49,
        "deceleration": 24.07,
        "rotation_down": 24.63,
        "downward_expansion": 26.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.087666,
        45.800208,
        45.607267,
        45.644856
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 46.79,
    "trend_reference": 45.90163,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.019354,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 39.284678,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19105,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.781182,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.000102,
    "excess_performance": -0.125727,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019354,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000162,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19105,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021989,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077812,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008727,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000102,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.574275,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 49475,
      "relative_activity": 0.818878,
      "balance": 0.574275,
      "dry_up": 0.867614,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029312,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.124792,
      "from_high_reference": -0.043096,
      "from_low_reference": 0.126743
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.90163,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.284678,
      "structural_low": 43.605508,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.006,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001532,
        "regime_survival": 0.722222,
        "best_return": 0.057994,
        "worst_return": -0.06358,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.004644,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016136,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.06519,
        "worst_return": -0.107389,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.040999,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029844,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.096337,
        "worst_return": -0.109772,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.200664,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037646,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.071223,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2022-12-02",
        "end": "2022-12-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-05-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -7.761546,
        "stage": 3,
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      {
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        "relative_strength": -8.895602,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 28.587433,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 38.689752,
        "relative_strength": -7.462804,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.836879,
        "energy": 37.80816,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 62901.4,
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        "fair_value": 38.795987,
        "relative_strength": -5.896884,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 11.551106,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 62876.1,
        "trend": 45.920025,
        "fair_value": 38.893701,
        "relative_strength": -8.244634,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.298285,
        "energy": 9.172436,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 45.315,
        "volume": 69561,
        "typical_volume": 62202.7,
        "trend": 45.893661,
        "fair_value": 38.989168,
        "relative_strength": -7.526669,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.024878,
        "energy": 10.560807,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.549231,
          45.395343,
          45.389107,
          45.606012
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 44.89,
        "volume": 42564,
        "typical_volume": 60207.5,
        "trend": 45.860109,
        "fair_value": 39.078793,
        "relative_strength": -7.70724,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.207084,
        "energy": 16.881048,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.359268,
          45.319109,
          45.344457,
          45.54126
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 46.58,
        "volume": 48078,
        "typical_volume": 60110.1,
        "trend": 45.90415,
        "fair_value": 39.1788,
        "relative_strength": -5.129235,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -0.431204,
        "energy": 5.444888,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.751145,
          45.555421,
          45.468023,
          45.587704
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 46.79,
        "volume": 49475,
        "typical_volume": 60418.0,
        "trend": 45.90163,
        "fair_value": 39.284678,
        "relative_strength": -7.781182,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.929439,
        "energy": 24.577086,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.087666,
          45.800208,
          45.607267,
          45.644856
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}