{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0c15a1d-bf51-4a51-a718-f08f9863cbd0", "symbol": "RKDA", "name": "Arcadia Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.752, "architecture_energy": 46.596, "architecture_maturity": 99.398, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.89, "rotation_up": 25.5, "upward_expansion": 6.67, "deceleration": 54.63, "rotation_down": 53.78, "downward_expansion": 82.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.661627, 0.697982, 0.82157, 1.002234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.6959, "trend_reference": 1.286293, "distance_from_trend": -0.458988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.068162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.773187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -74.133227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.613389, "excess_performance": -0.800843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.458988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.773187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.741332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.613389, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.011059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153087, "relative_activity": 0.015922, "balance": 0.011059, "dry_up": 0.019755, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.400008, "annualized_volatility": 0.638774, "from_high_reference": -0.896289, "from_low_reference": 0.179492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.286293, "fair_value_reference": 3.068162, "structural_low": 0.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.090698, "positive_rate": 0.162791, "directional_follow_through": 0.837209, "median_excess_return": -0.086428, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.565217, "worst_return": -0.391852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.259657, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.326409, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.370844, "worst_return": -0.619778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.537073, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.563398, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.186686, "worst_return": -0.667957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.734007, 0.827884, 0.989272, 1.206878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.67, "volume": 462486, "typical_volume": 9651686.8, "trend": 1.47093, "fair_value": 3.142642, "relative_strength": -76.584301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.819268, "energy": 60.89594, "activity_lines": [ 0.696347, 0.787978, 0.939368, 1.14871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.64, "volume": 82619, "typical_volume": 9651572.05, "trend": 1.405597, "fair_value": 3.11713, "relative_strength": -76.540935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.05791, "energy": 54.356672, "activity_lines": [ 0.672687, 0.749891, 0.892716, 1.095102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.625, "volume": 61601, "typical_volume": 9621906.95, "trend": 1.354763, "fair_value": 3.091265, "relative_strength": -76.452702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.14968, "energy": 52.034463, "activity_lines": [ 0.653187, 0.714815, 0.850969, 1.044741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6959, "volume": 153087, "typical_volume": 9615105.55, "trend": 1.286293, "fair_value": 3.068162, "relative_strength": -74.133227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.752305, "energy": 46.595843, "activity_lines": [ 0.661627, 0.697982, 0.82157, 1.002234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }