{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0c27479-9515-4947-9fe5-37fbe9584917", "symbol": "SEDGN", "name": "SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 85.994, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -49.143, "architecture_energy": 50.896, "architecture_maturity": 62.168, "architecture_confidence": 70.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.41, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 67.32, "rotation_down": 72.99, "downward_expansion": 44.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 729.287341, 836.302005, 902.287529, 864.479553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 560.0, "trend_reference": 791.089339, "distance_from_trend": -0.292115, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 803.315771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.563171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015817, "excess_performance": 0.03885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.292115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2454, "relative_activity": 12.005871, "balance": 0.224901, "dry_up": 3.065068, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230618, "annualized_volatility": 1.03298, "from_high_reference": -0.569231, "from_low_reference": 0.207964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 791.089339, "fair_value_reference": 803.315771, "structural_low": 559.51001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104857, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.77305, "worst_return": -0.445545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.7e-05, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062074, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.749117, "worst_return": -0.205674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.19883, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.088971, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.29682, "worst_return": 1.10084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.96, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06889, "active": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 763.330017, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 92.65, "trend": 781.78434, "fair_value": 834.255066, "relative_strength": 5.539826, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.297012, "energy": 17.343341, "activity_lines": [ 888.976672, 963.563277, 947.36148, 880.497617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 763.330017, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 82.3, "trend": 789.825673, "fair_value": 818.836925, "relative_strength": 4.262881, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.808694, "energy": 27.674916, "activity_lines": [ 838.59801, 915.805461, 934.810053, 879.307016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 560.0, "volume": 2454, "typical_volume": 204.4, "trend": 791.089339, "fair_value": 803.315771, "relative_strength": -23.563171, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.142931, "energy": 50.896188, "activity_lines": [ 729.287341, 836.302005, 902.287529, 864.479553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }