{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0c60716-1064-4c8f-8f85-28141f24f294", "symbol": "XWBS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Minimum Volatility ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.002, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.676, "architecture_energy": 89.533, "architecture_maturity": 13.593, "architecture_confidence": 64.254, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.46, "rotation_up": 86.83, "upward_expansion": 97.44, "deceleration": 39.1, "rotation_down": 8.65, "downward_expansion": 19.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.459334, 34.142182, 33.790941, 33.655538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.005001, "trend_reference": 33.500583, "distance_from_trend": 0.044907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.902867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132743, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.267469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05207, "excess_performance": 0.000835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061907, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.806142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63, "relative_activity": 0.094616, "balance": 14.806142, "dry_up": 0.180596, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012894, "annualized_volatility": 0.094537, "from_high_reference": -0.195652, "from_low_reference": 0.102433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.500583, "fair_value_reference": 30.902867, "structural_low": 32.549999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009902, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.001973, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.036494, "worst_return": -0.058841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035637, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024773, "worst_return": -0.038063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030046, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05896, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048381, "worst_return": 0.011712, "sufficient": false }, { 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-3.267469, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.676323, "energy": 89.532959, "activity_lines": [ 34.459334, 34.142182, 33.790941, 33.655538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }