{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0c75430-5cda-4e95-9b24-f4ee9bf02442", "symbol": "301263", "name": "Guangdong Taienkang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.688, "architecture_energy": 26.026, "architecture_maturity": 61.309, "architecture_confidence": 64.4, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.85, "rotation_up": 22.28, "upward_expansion": 9.3, "deceleration": 63.87, "rotation_down": 37.88, "downward_expansion": 65.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.268666, 20.135818, 20.700616, 21.47454 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.4, "trend_reference": 22.714929, "distance_from_trend": -0.057888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.941357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.753347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.199346, "excess_performance": -0.206746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.458575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25189275, "relative_activity": 1.064022, "balance": 0.458575, "dry_up": 1.288268, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103249, "annualized_volatility": 0.466635, "from_high_reference": -0.371864, "from_low_reference": 0.206994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.714929, "fair_value_reference": 17.941357, "structural_low": 17.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.04099, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.035134, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.124866, "worst_return": -0.142518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018928, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.103434, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.072794, "worst_return": -0.189859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130153, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.17669, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.042877, "worst_return": -0.195493, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 23212003.6, "trend": 22.906212, "fair_value": 17.887246, "relative_strength": -26.440417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.487698, "energy": 38.726135, "activity_lines": [ 19.638666, 19.788203, 20.796871, 21.721067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.49, "volume": 26585308, "typical_volume": 23601240.55, "trend": 22.804965, "fair_value": 17.9104, "relative_strength": -16.316004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.975543, "energy": 30.701679, "activity_lines": [ 19.883333, 19.864363, 20.696733, 21.565182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.4, "volume": 25189275, "typical_volume": 23673632.85, "trend": 22.714929, "fair_value": 17.941357, "relative_strength": -15.753347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.688317, "energy": 26.025824, "activity_lines": [ 20.268666, 20.135818, 20.700616, 21.47454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }