{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0d22ed0-1233-48b6-8c1d-fc5a2b472b93", "symbol": "300341", "name": "Motic (Xiamen) Electric Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.196, "architecture_energy": 46.962, "architecture_maturity": 58.491, "architecture_confidence": 86.31, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.1, "rotation_up": 17.27, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 54.08, "rotation_down": 60.5, "downward_expansion": 79.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.690667, 12.919606, 13.677125, 14.188113 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.33, "trend_reference": 15.011188, "distance_from_trend": -0.111996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.163433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.250443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203228, "excess_performance": -0.210627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861083, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25682154, "relative_activity": 0.99925, "balance": 0.861083, "dry_up": 1.197702, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101326, "annualized_volatility": 0.423966, "from_high_reference": -0.348166, "from_low_reference": 0.181738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.011188, "fair_value_reference": 14.163433, "structural_low": 11.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.029674, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.036411, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.638142, "worst_return": -0.141884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.13, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075344, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.618806, "worst_return": -0.127016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.261291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.241659, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.075372, "worst_return": -0.040574, "sufficient": true }, { 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-82.224172, "energy": 84.276404, "activity_lines": [ 12.697454, 13.472571, 14.153015, 14.682343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.44, "volume": 25167531, "typical_volume": 24469634.45, "trend": 15.230187, "fair_value": 14.134135, "relative_strength": -30.136797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.600655, "energy": 85.872115, "activity_lines": [ 12.099333, 12.99592, 13.854988, 14.425643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.33, "volume": 46297781, "typical_volume": 25397862.7, "trend": 15.111521, "fair_value": 14.147866, "relative_strength": -16.711011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.407194, "energy": 68.740855, "activity_lines": [ 12.400667, 12.936935, 13.759866, 14.30305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.33, "volume": 25682154, "typical_volume": 25701440.05, "trend": 15.011188, "fair_value": 14.163433, "relative_strength": -20.250443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.196188, "energy": 46.962311, "activity_lines": [ 12.690667, 12.919606, 13.677125, 14.188113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }