{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0d354d9-04af-43be-ae5e-0e789374f309", "symbol": "ROM", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA TECH", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.469, "architecture_energy": 23.057, "architecture_maturity": 71.924, "architecture_confidence": 94.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.98, "rotation_up": 29.58, "upward_expansion": 57.14, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.400667, 139.183818, 137.320048, 127.299478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 148.36, "trend_reference": 114.936941, "distance_from_trend": 0.290795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 75.352099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.96889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.964874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.655886, "excess_performance": 0.530261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.290795, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.96889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.269649, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.655886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 288317, "relative_activity": 0.884278, "balance": 1.348388, "dry_up": 0.901932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125849, "annualized_volatility": 0.560405, "from_high_reference": -0.136538, "from_low_reference": 1.079077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.936941, "fair_value_reference": 75.352099, "structural_low": 71.3586, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012343, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.008061, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.232755, "worst_return": -0.236578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104393, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.03614, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.286135, "worst_return": -0.202077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.387259, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.211674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.427017, "worst_return": -0.118779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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63.162234, "energy": 56.457479, "activity_lines": [ 147.19, 144.068, 126.526706, 116.643529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 139.31, "volume": 281999, "typical_volume": 299096.0, "trend": 108.010208, "fair_value": 72.373875, "relative_strength": 28.204875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.687965, "energy": 45.505765, "activity_lines": [ 144.093333, 144.236727, 129.091323, 118.751178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 147.01, "volume": 236579, "typical_volume": 301955.4, "trend": 109.773918, "fair_value": 73.023539, "relative_strength": 32.25956, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.6813, "energy": 42.841034, "activity_lines": [ 144.872667, 145.327636, 132.142731, 121.267294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 130.78, "volume": 254392, "typical_volume": 304901.2, "trend": 110.964641, "fair_value": 73.568781, "relative_strength": 18.783022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.138125, "energy": 28.543119, "activity_lines": [ 139.788, 142.887636, 133.372166, 122.622525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.92, "volume": 234042, "typical_volume": 306829.0, "trend": 112.06753, "fair_value": 74.109119, "relative_strength": 18.861095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.945078, "energy": 21.858535, "activity_lines": [ 135.822667, 140.551091, 134.402109, 123.909968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.47, "volume": 399541, "typical_volume": 317673.25, "trend": 113.225059, "fair_value": 74.663242, "relative_strength": 15.571287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.627672, "energy": 19.867168, "activity_lines": [ 133.113333, 138.036364, 135.071323, 125.032708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 148.36, "volume": 288317, "typical_volume": 326047.95, "trend": 114.936941, "fair_value": 75.352099, "relative_strength": 26.964874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.468532, "energy": 23.056843, "activity_lines": [ 137.400667, 139.183818, 137.320048, 127.299478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }