{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0ddf51d-9a95-4806-8768-2be3fd31a807", "symbol": "AGNC", "name": "AGNC Investment Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.428, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.14, "architecture_energy": 23.759, "architecture_maturity": 19.656, "architecture_confidence": 48.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.05, "rotation_up": 46.7, "upward_expansion": 48.61, "deceleration": 42.99, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 9.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.76351, 10.729233, 10.572167, 10.49402 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.84, "trend_reference": 10.512805, "distance_from_trend": 0.031124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.269635, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.695941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008999, "excess_performance": -0.196453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.191504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102497937, "relative_activity": 1.258489, "balance": 2.191504, "dry_up": 1.294392, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041372, "annualized_volatility": 0.215877, "from_high_reference": -0.060182, "from_low_reference": 0.305121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.512805, "fair_value_reference": 8.269635, "structural_low": 9.306362, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01729, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002372, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.128502, "worst_return": -0.092489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00717, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075102, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096254, "worst_return": -0.241695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039467, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.303774, "worst_return": -0.106131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 45.744666, "energy": 65.641142, "activity_lines": [ 10.914809, 10.644566, 10.481689, 10.463701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.472115, "volume": 118568886, "typical_volume": 81529971.45, "trend": 10.50074, "fair_value": 8.215222, "relative_strength": -3.679751, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.628667, "energy": 53.353684, "activity_lines": [ 10.811713, 10.647583, 10.496035, 10.462541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.66, "volume": 116055621, "typical_volume": 82564227.4, "trend": 10.511342, "fair_value": 8.241725, "relative_strength": -2.507391, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.272892, "energy": 33.756773, "activity_lines": [ 10.757568, 10.678192, 10.527372, 10.472816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.84, "volume": 102497937, "typical_volume": 81445265.55, "trend": 10.512805, "fair_value": 8.269635, "relative_strength": -5.695941, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.139736, "energy": 23.759325, "activity_lines": [ 10.76351, 10.729233, 10.572167, 10.49402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }