{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0e158b3-1168-4ff4-a215-1f56b0b086e5", "symbol": "600123", "name": "Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 83.537, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.342, "architecture_energy": 24.753, "architecture_maturity": 29.296, "architecture_confidence": 76.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.15, "rotation_up": 58.99, "upward_expansion": 39.42, "deceleration": 43.71, "rotation_down": 20.06, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.675333, 6.387091, 6.43881, 6.472753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.99, "trend_reference": 6.455, "distance_from_trend": 0.082881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.805618, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104491, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.151046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113057, "excess_performance": 0.156261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113057, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157185852, "relative_activity": 1.126226, "balance": 1.835738, "dry_up": 1.138533, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09288, "annualized_volatility": 0.467897, "from_high_reference": -0.080263, "from_low_reference": 0.289668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.455, "fair_value_reference": 7.805618, "structural_low": 5.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004479, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.007368, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.366808, "worst_return": -0.079153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003236, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.073409, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.393235, "worst_return": -0.116461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104803, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.190812, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.479345, "worst_return": -0.241881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060089, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044915, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.48045, "worst_return": -0.207631, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134378, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 7.825771, "relative_strength": -0.734163, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.858704, "energy": 54.319949, "activity_lines": [ 5.846, 6.130909, 6.351143, 6.394194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.41, "volume": 170649400, "typical_volume": 169290220.3, "trend": 6.384333, "fair_value": 7.817199, "relative_strength": 2.144905, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.083551, "energy": 27.257014, "activity_lines": [ 6.043333, 6.147455, 6.342429, 6.396839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.99, "volume": 155636863, "typical_volume": 148245073.4, "trend": 6.419, "fair_value": 7.811936, "relative_strength": 11.048394, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.153179, "energy": 10.935924, "activity_lines": [ 6.41, 6.274, 6.390095, 6.435914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.99, "volume": 157185852, "typical_volume": 139568639.3, "trend": 6.455, "fair_value": 7.805618, "relative_strength": 8.151046, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.342016, "energy": 24.753195, "activity_lines": [ 6.675333, 6.387091, 6.43881, 6.472753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }