{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0f9c1f9-c8e4-4de7-9a3f-e1b345c03f61", "symbol": "GOEX", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS GOLD EXPLORERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.535, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.745, "architecture_energy": 19.812, "architecture_maturity": 46.845, "architecture_confidence": 85.989, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.27, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 42.85, "rotation_down": 35.36, "downward_expansion": 66.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.786553, 72.484515, 75.128679, 78.406547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 84.2516, "trend_reference": 83.169307, "distance_from_trend": 0.013013, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.688058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.844062, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.195113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.063767, "excess_performance": -0.189392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.844062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35206, "relative_activity": 0.469789, "balance": 0.933922, "dry_up": 0.409084, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09834, "annualized_volatility": 0.613889, "from_high_reference": -0.235397, "from_low_reference": 0.826098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.169307, "fair_value_reference": 45.688058, "structural_low": 64.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.039934, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.03204, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.188183, "worst_return": -0.134538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.11771, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.132011, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.318269, "worst_return": -0.115547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110864, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.128317, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.391624, "worst_return": -0.243925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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73.513868, 77.984334, 81.469635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.7009, "volume": 43876, "typical_volume": 94763.1, "trend": 84.175925, "fair_value": 44.713726, "relative_strength": -19.564791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.140571, "energy": 61.727074, "activity_lines": [ 69.652718, 71.666815, 76.429328, 80.242541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.8007, "volume": 32179, "typical_volume": 89809.15, "trend": 83.625063, "fair_value": 45.007897, "relative_strength": -14.385244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.128636, "energy": 49.287194, "activity_lines": [ 69.265099, 70.940015, 75.466965, 79.315107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.5357, "volume": 11366, "typical_volume": 86428.35, "trend": 83.24492, "fair_value": 45.296165, "relative_strength": -17.171772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.232277, "energy": 47.526098, "activity_lines": [ 68.82984, 70.204519, 74.504388, 78.3416 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.2516, "volume": 35206, "typical_volume": 74940.05, "trend": 83.169307, "fair_value": 45.688058, "relative_strength": -2.195113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.745401, "energy": 19.812493, "activity_lines": [ 73.786553, 72.484515, 75.128679, 78.406547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }