{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0fbc760-5361-4ef8-9ba0-85a82ad4c416", "symbol": "RFIL", "name": "RF Industries Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.529, "architecture_energy": 32.043, "architecture_maturity": 40.533, "architecture_confidence": 47.37, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.92, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 68.21, "rotation_down": 65.67, "downward_expansion": 43.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.961333, 14.853818, 15.69731, 14.907258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.81, "trend_reference": 13.668833, "distance_from_trend": -0.062832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.188886, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.069839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.969298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122699, "excess_performance": -0.064754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.31697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.069839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.890348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059693, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.521013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082200, "relative_activity": 0.819587, "balance": 0.790696, "dry_up": 0.972527, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277088, "annualized_volatility": 0.838794, "from_high_reference": -0.425561, "from_low_reference": 1.312233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.668833, "fair_value_reference": 6.188886, "structural_low": 8.7701, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026699, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.021893, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.316986, "worst_return": -0.069682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05168, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.910834, "worst_return": -0.228132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210178, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.17722, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.486121, "worst_return": -0.176123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.13474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.214528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464516, "worst_return": -0.195035, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159292, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042735, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 1569059, "typical_volume": 1420075.8, "trend": 13.003167, "fair_value": 6.021578, "relative_strength": 14.683809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.86482, "energy": 18.06743, "activity_lines": [ 16.634667, 17.335455, 16.424952, 15.040989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.46, "volume": 1129326, "typical_volume": 1399302.7, "trend": 13.219167, "fair_value": 6.077283, "relative_strength": 10.036099, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.60542, "energy": 16.208655, "activity_lines": [ 14.946667, 16.393091, 16.1855, 15.005946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.32, "volume": 1355993, "typical_volume": 1433586.0, "trend": 13.4405, "fair_value": 6.131194, "relative_strength": 7.755399, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.215978, "energy": 23.260151, "activity_lines": [ 13.568667, 15.522545, 15.923095, 14.947935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.81, "volume": 1082200, "typical_volume": 1320420.35, "trend": 13.668833, "fair_value": 6.188886, "relative_strength": 5.969298, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.528851, "energy": 32.042707, "activity_lines": [ 12.961333, 14.853818, 15.69731, 14.907258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }