{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c109a110-62af-41c3-b749-a1988be101ab", "symbol": "TSU", "name": "Trisura Group Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.831, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.88, "architecture_energy": 36.252, "architecture_maturity": 13.8, "architecture_confidence": 88.352, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.53, "rotation_up": 15.27, "upward_expansion": 6.34, "deceleration": 43.91, "rotation_down": 56.47, "downward_expansion": 75.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.215999, 42.832182, 42.846, 43.192323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.599998, "trend_reference": 43.674333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.646282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.456372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053039, "excess_performance": -0.17346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047496, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053039, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.187436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492800, "relative_activity": 1.217828, "balance": 0.187436, "dry_up": 0.991091, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050379, "annualized_volatility": 0.314084, "from_high_reference": -0.184314, "from_low_reference": 0.154914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.674333, "fair_value_reference": 39.646282, "structural_low": 39.860001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011496, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.025764, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204157, "worst_return": -0.292738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034909, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.082675, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.302833, "worst_return": -0.299486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10473, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.324205, 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"activity_lines": [ 43.859334, 43.237637, 43.201715, 43.540946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.82, "volume": 236100, "typical_volume": 433865.0, "trend": 43.837333, "fair_value": 39.552949, "relative_strength": -8.278377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.634554, "energy": 16.491984, "activity_lines": [ 43.573334, 43.275273, 43.15, 43.475097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.66, "volume": 434200, "typical_volume": 437360.0, "trend": 43.805667, "fair_value": 39.605513, "relative_strength": -9.952015, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.50534, "energy": 22.569286, "activity_lines": [ 42.874667, 43.063819, 42.995238, 43.334624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.599998, "volume": 492800, "typical_volume": 404655.0, "trend": 43.674333, "fair_value": 39.646282, "relative_strength": -12.456372, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.880333, "energy": 36.251627, "activity_lines": [ 42.215999, 42.832182, 42.846, 43.192323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }