{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c10a383e-c93b-4a2e-988c-9c26fd8559a7", "symbol": "300120", "name": "Tianjin Jingwei Huikai Optoelectronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.678, "architecture_energy": 58.404, "architecture_maturity": 14.733, "architecture_confidence": 73.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 11.34, "deceleration": 41.02, "rotation_down": 73.98, "downward_expansion": 82.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.557333, 7.514545, 7.771905, 7.866086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.79, "trend_reference": 8.075333, "distance_from_trend": -0.159168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.89, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.407304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205848, "excess_performance": -0.213248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139417, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051672, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205848, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129156182, "relative_activity": 1.286466, "balance": 0.586965, "dry_up": 1.597943, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188399, "annualized_volatility": 0.711316, "from_high_reference": -0.448864, "from_low_reference": 0.197531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.075333, "fair_value_reference": 7.89, "structural_low": 5.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.004963, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.010579, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.261411, "worst_return": -0.382482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.073341, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.045539, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.412556, "worst_return": -0.348905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.074878, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064259, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.25323, "worst_return": -0.354077, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047733, 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reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.052999, "energy": 44.376075, "activity_lines": [ 9.304, 8.906364, 8.377476, 8.334043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.61, "volume": 218066382, "typical_volume": 92659280.45, "trend": 8.281333, "fair_value": 7.918718, "relative_strength": -25.478933, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.948883, "energy": 13.512084, "activity_lines": [ 8.392, 8.561636, 8.226429, 8.221333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.02, "volume": 148677428, "typical_volume": 95771142.8, "trend": 8.202667, "fair_value": 7.908141, "relative_strength": -31.700234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.14271, "energy": 40.779011, "activity_lines": [ 7.450667, 8.129273, 8.029857, 8.075441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.3, "volume": 145809251, "typical_volume": 99434946.85, "trend": 8.132333, "fair_value": 7.898718, "relative_strength": -26.776156, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.509367, "energy": 53.499549, "activity_lines": [ 6.768667, 7.769818, 7.872476, 7.952688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.79, "volume": 129156182, "typical_volume": 100396124.15, "trend": 8.075333, "fair_value": 7.89, "relative_strength": -24.407304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.677794, "energy": 58.404074, "activity_lines": [ 6.557333, 7.514545, 7.771905, 7.866086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }