{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c10a3abe-a86d-443c-bc87-c9598827b8db", "symbol": "UETE", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.441, "architecture_energy": 24.834, "architecture_maturity": 67.055, "architecture_confidence": 89.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.1, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 58.75, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 30.7, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.903, 26.254364, 25.94231, 25.05572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.305, "trend_reference": 23.898666, "distance_from_trend": 0.100689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.631522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.49193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.930245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2215, "excess_performance": 0.15686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.49193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109302, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197831, "relative_activity": 1.07726, "balance": 0.603159, "dry_up": 1.541391, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048923, "annualized_volatility": 0.244518, "from_high_reference": -0.061541, "from_low_reference": 0.497666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.898666, "fair_value_reference": 17.631522, "structural_low": 20.415001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03413, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004817, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.13784, "worst_return": -0.002275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114129, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284821, "worst_return": 0.048501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.164571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.092847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.362113, "worst_return": -0.002272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009055, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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17.170259, "relative_strength": 24.88561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.320402, "energy": 69.636713, "activity_lines": [ 26.939333, 26.356364, 24.867047, 23.906645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.254999, "volume": 6520, "typical_volume": 156335.3, "trend": 22.901633, "fair_value": 17.256471, "relative_strength": 21.099487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.971218, "energy": 67.208087, "activity_lines": [ 27.079666, 26.630454, 25.20169, 24.203342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.855, "volume": 414749, "typical_volume": 175095.35, "trend": 23.146466, "fair_value": 17.338374, "relative_strength": 21.778469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.063768, "energy": 63.70581, "activity_lines": [ 27.057666, 26.766272, 25.472262, 24.458398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.370001, "volume": 432522, "typical_volume": 182770.2, "trend": 23.335867, "fair_value": 17.410951, "relative_strength": 15.414776, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.72748, "energy": 44.512092, "activity_lines": [ 26.485333, 26.576273, 25.580095, 24.601851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.855, "volume": 179647, "typical_volume": 182015.25, "trend": 23.541833, "fair_value": 17.482214, "relative_strength": 15.611934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.29638, "energy": 34.573544, "activity_lines": [ 26.169, 26.477182, 25.720857, 24.764376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.465, "volume": 322261, "typical_volume": 182459.4, "trend": 23.712333, "fair_value": 17.552733, "relative_strength": 10.912204, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.234765, "energy": 23.866025, "activity_lines": [ 25.854667, 26.289273, 25.801857, 24.888452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.305, "volume": 197831, "typical_volume": 183642.7, "trend": 23.898666, "fair_value": 17.631522, "relative_strength": 10.930245, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.440553, "energy": 24.833617, "activity_lines": [ 25.903, 26.254364, 25.94231, 25.05572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }