{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1109ce3-5dca-4fde-9e15-4835c6b42d0f", "symbol": "ZBH", "name": "Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.152, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.543, "architecture_energy": 61.075, "architecture_maturity": 14.002, "architecture_confidence": 65.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.2, "rotation_up": 71.46, "upward_expansion": 87.15, "deceleration": 44.81, "rotation_down": 10.89, "downward_expansion": 11.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.499999, 80.258844, 77.864445, 77.674329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 83.199997, "trend_reference": 77.393143, "distance_from_trend": 0.075031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.827552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.575506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113698, "excess_performance": -0.060549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.456897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 458, "relative_activity": 7.862661, "balance": 3.456897, "dry_up": 4.240343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049537, "annualized_volatility": 0.323209, "from_high_reference": -0.09578, "from_low_reference": 0.233512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.393143, "fair_value_reference": 92.827552, "structural_low": 67.449662, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018042, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02063, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.069736, "worst_return": -0.048141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052402, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.188433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077388, "worst_return": -0.100044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100093, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.27541, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.096693, "worst_return": -0.229358, "sufficient": false }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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25.509779, "energy": 33.606306, "activity_lines": [ 79.384138, 77.724562, 76.433199, 76.802326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.879997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29.05, "trend": 77.138156, "fair_value": 93.201795, "relative_strength": -16.506825, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.159463, "energy": 34.844568, "activity_lines": [ 80.022666, 78.591475, 76.840435, 77.055554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.800003, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 35.35, "trend": 77.270841, "fair_value": 93.000594, "relative_strength": -16.083507, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.28123, "energy": 48.537029, "activity_lines": [ 80.329334, 79.277231, 77.237236, 77.291802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.199997, "volume": 458, "typical_volume": 58.25, "trend": 77.393143, "fair_value": 92.827552, "relative_strength": -15.575506, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.543354, "energy": 61.074717, "activity_lines": [ 81.499999, 80.258844, 77.864445, 77.674329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }