{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c110ff4a-2e0d-4a4b-a2f1-47ce107a9083", "symbol": "HYDUS", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ECPI Global ESG Hydrogen Economy", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.253, "architecture_energy": 56.913, "architecture_maturity": 62.021, "architecture_confidence": 63.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.78, "rotation_up": 39.54, "upward_expansion": 65.5, "deceleration": 74.0, "rotation_down": 27.98, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.73756, 14.813507, 14.391097, 14.123397 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.7357, "trend_reference": 13.86546, "distance_from_trend": 0.062763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.142645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452846, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.497932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062109, "excess_performance": 0.008798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109856, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064979, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.304, "dry_up": 0.138623, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013141, "annualized_volatility": 0.229144, "from_high_reference": -0.026119, "from_low_reference": 0.399229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.86546, "fair_value_reference": 10.142645, "structural_low": 12.6417, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005157, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.149495, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.146969, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146969, "worst_return": 0.146969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029051, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039546, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.436175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"energy": 59.049193, "activity_lines": [ 14.756333, 14.810542, 14.31092, 14.062896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.7357, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 523.0, "trend": 13.86546, "fair_value": 10.142645, "relative_strength": 6.497932, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.253373, "energy": 56.912862, "activity_lines": [ 14.73756, 14.813507, 14.391097, 14.123397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }