{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c111e381-86b6-41eb-9cb0-cba123305f03", "symbol": "XQQU", "name": "iShares NASDAQ 100 Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.418, "architecture_energy": 29.196, "architecture_maturity": 67.171, "architecture_confidence": 89.003, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.39, "rotation_up": 30.79, "upward_expansion": 61.61, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 31.32, "downward_expansion": 20.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.26, 97.329459, 96.428184, 93.256575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 98.529999, "trend_reference": 89.399362, "distance_from_trend": 0.102133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.664287, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.834373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.208216, "excess_performance": 0.087794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018344, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.963595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32562, "relative_activity": 0.748016, "balance": 2.963595, "dry_up": 0.989929, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040219, "annualized_volatility": 0.204951, "from_high_reference": -0.04096, "from_low_reference": 0.304562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.399362, "fair_value_reference": 70.664287, "structural_low": 75.879997, "invalidation": "A 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0.184281, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184281, "worst_return": 0.184281, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086131, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086502, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.107801, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038418, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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97.940035, 95.602573, 92.266879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.330002, "volume": 43898, "typical_volume": 43367.1, "trend": 88.959362, "fair_value": 70.48096, "relative_strength": 0.638603, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.498507, "energy": 25.878442, "activity_lines": [ 95.730667, 97.228747, 95.850331, 92.639114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.529999, "volume": 32562, "typical_volume": 43531.15, "trend": 89.399362, "fair_value": 70.664287, "relative_strength": 1.834373, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.417717, "energy": 29.196409, "activity_lines": [ 96.26, 97.329459, 96.428184, 93.256575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }