{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c11266ce-4889-4e2a-b60b-f08a332635e7", "symbol": "8180", "name": "Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.181, "architecture_energy": 21.495, "architecture_maturity": 63.848, "architecture_confidence": 87.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.86, "rotation_up": 25.23, "upward_expansion": 56.56, "deceleration": 88.21, "rotation_down": 34.9, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 11.253455, 11.143048, 10.829484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 10.472, "distance_from_trend": 0.079068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.154744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.739484, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.13, "excess_performance": 0.161829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037395, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1075829, "relative_activity": 0.788535, "balance": 1.011533, "dry_up": 0.541112, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070796, "annualized_volatility": 0.293038, "from_high_reference": -0.246667, "from_low_reference": 0.320093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.472, "fair_value_reference": 17.154744, "structural_low": 8.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.115034, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.12194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.720214, "worst_return": -0.378755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.088628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.162903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269932, "worst_return": -0.280303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108501, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.191955, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.445623, "worst_return": -0.385822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.452461, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.50168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.688312, "worst_return": -0.545055, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2589, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138614, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096023, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 15.64, "volume": 911828, "typical_volume": 621706.9, "trend": 16.008667, "fair_value": 34.267692, "relative_strength": -16.324847, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.337703, "energy": 16.156304, "activity_lines": [ 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11.498909, 11.000381, 10.664409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.35, "volume": 777372, "typical_volume": 1345030.35, "trend": 10.351333, "fair_value": 17.284295, "relative_strength": 4.234254, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.332332, "energy": 42.82306, "activity_lines": [ 11.582667, 11.501455, 11.081429, 10.732258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.08, "volume": 508495, "typical_volume": 1329905.45, "trend": 10.409, "fair_value": 17.239167, "relative_strength": 1.3965, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.709016, "energy": 30.45129, "activity_lines": [ 11.383333, 11.449091, 11.127952, 10.779269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.31, "volume": 591347, "typical_volume": 1317624.15, "trend": 10.422667, "fair_value": 17.192692, "relative_strength": -3.405459, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.094419, "energy": 16.44965, "activity_lines": [ 10.991333, 11.255273, 11.091476, 10.772882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 1075829, "typical_volume": 1364339.55, "trend": 10.472, "fair_value": 17.154744, "relative_strength": 3.739484, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.181053, "energy": 21.495425, "activity_lines": [ 11.01, 11.253455, 11.143048, 10.829484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }