{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c113c576-e196-426d-8515-81cc64a7ca91", "symbol": "SRT", "name": "CSOP iEdge S-REIT Leaders Index ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.389, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.388, "architecture_energy": 30.324, "architecture_maturity": 9.911, "architecture_confidence": 95.04, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.93, "rotation_up": 22.57, "upward_expansion": 7.26, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 51.77, "downward_expansion": 75.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.737904, 0.739832, 0.741023, 0.742941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.731, "trend_reference": 0.748893, "distance_from_trend": -0.023893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.703674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.542387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051881, "excess_performance": -0.206716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3500642, "relative_activity": 1.61945, "balance": 0.648921, "dry_up": 1.214278, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018801, "annualized_volatility": 0.107792, "from_high_reference": -0.072077, "from_low_reference": 0.02381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.748893, "fair_value_reference": 0.703674, "structural_low": 0.714, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008517, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.042432, "worst_return": -0.041917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011004, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009829, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094979, "worst_return": -0.019975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004071, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 5.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091646, "worst_return": -0.035046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.74, "volume": 2392684, "typical_volume": 2090384.7, "trend": 0.750364, "fair_value": 0.703483, "relative_strength": -16.926322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.234295, "energy": 16.994242, "activity_lines": [ 0.741746, 0.741756, 0.742012, 0.744191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.731, "volume": 3500642, "typical_volume": 2161624.5, "trend": 0.748893, "fair_value": 0.703674, "relative_strength": -18.542387, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.388101, "energy": 30.324263, "activity_lines": [ 0.737904, 0.739832, 0.741023, 0.742941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }