{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1157e1a-201d-4127-b3b5-af0baddcab01", "symbol": "DUKB34", "name": "Duke Energy Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.067, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.814, "architecture_energy": 17.287, "architecture_maturity": 13.904, "architecture_confidence": 58.241, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.04, "rotation_up": 23.46, "upward_expansion": 16.6, "deceleration": 55.17, "rotation_down": 37.69, "downward_expansion": 59.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 640.273987, 642.664169, 639.481627, 643.868081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 634.409973, "trend_reference": 645.697672, "distance_from_trend": -0.017481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 580.728931, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092437, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.074868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008488, "excess_performance": 0.065537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016691, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150395, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008488, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.862697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 659, "relative_activity": 5.351198, "balance": 1.862697, "dry_up": 1.80877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026263, "annualized_volatility": 0.206548, "from_high_reference": -0.090776, "from_low_reference": 0.049951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 645.697672, "fair_value_reference": 580.728931, "structural_low": 604.228027, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00221, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000699, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048414, "worst_return": -0.034375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012555, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.030217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031559, "worst_return": -0.067208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041415, "worst_return": -0.155672, "sufficient": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 88.05, "trend": 644.760315, "fair_value": 576.329162, "relative_strength": -6.371709, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.467721, "energy": 19.963235, "activity_lines": [ 647.111983, 641.362533, 641.793154, 644.841151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 645.76001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 88.1, "trend": 645.07489, "fair_value": 577.829335, "relative_strength": -6.362842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.844522, "energy": 11.834421, "activity_lines": [ 646.974658, 643.305445, 641.411575, 644.905647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 639.98999, "volume": 161, "typical_volume": 90.2, "trend": 645.407349, "fair_value": 579.352494, "relative_strength": -8.701405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.774133, "energy": 7.531767, "activity_lines": [ 643.821326, 643.674536, 640.574795, 644.577589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 634.409973, "volume": 659, "typical_volume": 123.15, "trend": 645.697672, "fair_value": 580.728931, "relative_strength": -6.074868, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.813539, "energy": 17.2872, "activity_lines": [ 640.273987, 642.664169, 639.481627, 643.868081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }