{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c11848c7-f27c-4e00-b7e4-7df859894a06", "symbol": "002247", "name": "Zhejiang Juli Culture Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.304, "architecture_energy": 52.888, "architecture_maturity": 60.042, "architecture_confidence": 93.366, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 24.51, "upward_expansion": 8.59, "deceleration": 60.28, "rotation_down": 54.52, "downward_expansion": 81.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.146, 2.165818, 2.346, 2.483957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 2.643667, "distance_from_trend": -0.141344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.336282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.256821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217241, "excess_performance": -0.224641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122805000, "relative_activity": 1.237447, "balance": 0.288785, "dry_up": 1.315482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094544, "annualized_volatility": 0.36844, "from_high_reference": -0.307927, "from_low_reference": 0.194737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.643667, "fair_value_reference": 2.336282, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034598, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.198413, "worst_return": -0.261364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02069, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011027, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.278388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008511, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054902, "worst_return": -0.128834, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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99565405.85, "trend": 2.661667, "fair_value": 2.335577, "relative_strength": -21.438553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.842207, "energy": 61.01906, "activity_lines": [ 2.096667, 2.16, 2.370238, 2.509226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 122805000, "typical_volume": 99240625.9, "trend": 2.643667, "fair_value": 2.336282, "relative_strength": -20.256821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.304215, "energy": 52.887963, "activity_lines": [ 2.146, 2.165818, 2.346, 2.483957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }