{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c118aacf-79a1-4e0d-a8ea-fe0a24162ec7", "symbol": "LITE", "name": "Lumentum Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.389, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.737, "architecture_energy": 14.618, "architecture_maturity": 45.155, "architecture_confidence": 90.432, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.77, "rotation_up": 32.86, "upward_expansion": 55.22, "deceleration": 84.71, "rotation_down": 28.79, "downward_expansion": 23.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 14021.333333, 13949.214577, 14483.904246, 14117.742992 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15300.0, "trend_reference": 12973.415332, "distance_from_trend": 0.179335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3808.984733, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.016818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 65.400101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.62766, "excess_performance": 0.682326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.179335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.016818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.817521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.654001, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.830087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.62766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620749, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279, "relative_activity": 0.157761, "balance": 0.620749, "dry_up": 1.609839, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12248, "annualized_volatility": 0.642508, "from_high_reference": -0.172973, "from_low_reference": 6.391304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12973.415332, "fair_value_reference": 3808.984733, "structural_low": 9311.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.06093, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.449028, "worst_return": -0.130589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.127948, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.131895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.125307, "worst_return": -0.130589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.098651, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.091611, "worst_return": -0.105691, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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11.709227, "energy": 18.531169, "activity_lines": [ 13839.696094, 14462.717489, 14679.536816, 13726.203808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12950.0, "volume": 4875, "typical_volume": 1704.0, "trend": 12221.093994, "fair_value": 3555.010374, "relative_strength": 52.424561, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.678438, "energy": 18.23217, "activity_lines": [ 13444.27207, 14095.172585, 14559.463198, 13786.90527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14820.0, "volume": 1670, "typical_volume": 1685.0, "trend": 12479.960661, "fair_value": 3643.856528, "relative_strength": 69.950439, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.692734, "energy": 16.169361, "activity_lines": [ 13815.514714, 14115.809499, 14611.651483, 13954.576626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12380.0, "volume": 4564, "typical_volume": 1779.95, "trend": 12670.960661, "fair_value": 3717.061656, "relative_strength": 37.529099, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.915378, "energy": 13.215269, "activity_lines": [ 13374.09069, 13730.693857, 14411.363579, 13948.127551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15300.0, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 1768.5, "trend": 12973.415332, "fair_value": 3808.984733, "relative_strength": 65.400101, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.736512, "energy": 14.618396, "activity_lines": [ 14021.333333, 13949.214577, 14483.904246, 14117.742992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }