{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c123d745-6a50-4741-a4ce-a78936602b7b", "symbol": "900908", "name": "Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.406, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.226, "architecture_energy": 18.337, "architecture_maturity": 57.571, "architecture_confidence": 71.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.59, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 45.62, "rotation_down": 27.44, "downward_expansion": 57.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.655315, 0.651477, 0.654834, 0.666559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.658, "trend_reference": 0.68147, "distance_from_trend": -0.03444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.55723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.122561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.092414, "excess_performance": -0.04921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4209760, "relative_activity": 1.215854, "balance": 0.442528, "dry_up": 0.919855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035934, "annualized_volatility": 0.191349, "from_high_reference": -0.121495, "from_low_reference": 0.085809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.68147, "fair_value_reference": 0.55723, "structural_low": 0.606, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016058, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.017717, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.104234, "worst_return": -0.116204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022693, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035625, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152015, "worst_return": -0.10196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012742, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047992, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.315092, "worst_return": -0.178517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 0.552049, "relative_strength": -5.40498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.984515, "energy": 39.06678, "activity_lines": [ 0.646453, 0.646702, 0.661749, 0.673914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.636726, "volume": 2315298, "typical_volume": 4282240.25, "trend": 0.681436, "fair_value": 0.55329, "relative_strength": -0.911094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.092232, "energy": 46.482745, "activity_lines": [ 0.642804, 0.644027, 0.657749, 0.670943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.655, "volume": 3610596, "typical_volume": 3914576.2, "trend": 0.681836, "fair_value": 0.554573, "relative_strength": 0.57323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.187606, "energy": 32.912379, "activity_lines": [ 0.645664, 0.645589, 0.656025, 0.669237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.664, "volume": 2603934, "typical_volume": 3652768.7, "trend": 0.68167, "fair_value": 0.555947, "relative_strength": 1.497927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.566246, "energy": 25.36992, "activity_lines": [ 0.652525, 0.649188, 0.655558, 0.668086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.658, "volume": 4209760, "typical_volume": 3462389.9, "trend": 0.68147, "fair_value": 0.55723, "relative_strength": -2.122561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.225652, "energy": 18.336654, "activity_lines": [ 0.655315, 0.651477, 0.654834, 0.666559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }