{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c124bac5-96a2-4e77-897f-1e8f9c245edc", "symbol": "EGB", "name": "E-Globe S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.297, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.295, "architecture_energy": 27.476, "architecture_maturity": 6.4, "architecture_confidence": 50.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.17, "rotation_up": 47.07, "upward_expansion": 71.05, "deceleration": 62.84, "rotation_down": 20.79, "downward_expansion": 7.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.578, 0.5714, 0.555938, 0.550714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.535, "trend_reference": 0.547867, "distance_from_trend": -0.023485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.931788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.425835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.824237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019048, "excess_performance": -0.151844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.425835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54000, "relative_activity": 0.82632, "balance": 0.977612, "dry_up": 2.486611, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116894, "annualized_volatility": 0.614364, "from_high_reference": -0.347561, "from_low_reference": 0.12395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.547867, "fair_value_reference": 0.931788, "structural_low": 0.476, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.150602, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018349, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.6, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.55, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.496246, "energy": 70.097103, "activity_lines": [ 0.608, 0.571273, 0.551238, 0.548839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 320000, "typical_volume": 74150.0, "trend": 0.5507, "fair_value": 0.941155, "relative_strength": -11.914468, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.748863, "energy": 66.662734, "activity_lines": [ 0.616667, 0.579164, 0.556543, 0.552009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.545, "volume": 105000, "typical_volume": 68200.0, "trend": 0.549367, "fair_value": 0.938615, "relative_strength": -19.845485, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.489999, "energy": 54.445683, "activity_lines": [ 0.599667, 0.576236, 0.5568, 0.551641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.535, "volume": 54000, "typical_volume": 65350.0, "trend": 0.547867, "fair_value": 0.931788, "relative_strength": -22.824237, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.295485, "energy": 27.476089, "activity_lines": [ 0.578, 0.5714, 0.555938, 0.550714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }