{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c129589c-15a4-4376-a979-93e28ccfeb42", "symbol": "300215", "name": "Suzhou Electrical Apparatus Science Academy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.206, "architecture_energy": 59.284, "architecture_maturity": 27.408, "architecture_confidence": 90.024, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.01, "rotation_up": 17.99, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 49.25, "rotation_down": 63.92, "downward_expansion": 83.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.043333, 6.216679, 6.924881, 7.422675 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.24, "trend_reference": 7.942595, "distance_from_trend": -0.214363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.980207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.353853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226766, "excess_performance": -0.234166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56338136, "relative_activity": 0.609516, "balance": 0.393343, "dry_up": 0.662503, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118049, "annualized_volatility": 0.499122, "from_high_reference": -0.448276, "from_low_reference": 0.188571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.942595, "fair_value_reference": 5.980207, "structural_low": 5.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.037106, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.031362, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.540342, "worst_return": -0.179126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02924, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030927, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.340206, "worst_return": -0.222491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020613, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.398465, "worst_return": -0.25393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.435758, 7.197051, 7.652063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.12, "volume": 57617227, "typical_volume": 99243702.0, "trend": 7.946595, "fair_value": 5.972832, "relative_strength": -15.003748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.475384, "energy": 72.425336, "activity_lines": [ 6.0, 6.288516, 7.046538, 7.532778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.24, "volume": 56338136, "typical_volume": 92430986.75, "trend": 7.942595, "fair_value": 5.980207, "relative_strength": -17.353853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.206264, "energy": 59.283724, "activity_lines": [ 6.043333, 6.216679, 6.924881, 7.422675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }