{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c12b934a-30c1-4638-b159-52f36687a1e6", "symbol": "N1OW34", "name": "ServiceNow, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.678, "architecture_energy": 37.505, "architecture_maturity": 28.276, "architecture_confidence": 53.496, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.73, "rotation_up": 56.31, "upward_expansion": 49.04, "deceleration": 27.84, "rotation_down": 22.98, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.298, 10.924545, 10.595238, 10.591591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 10.837, "distance_from_trend": 0.153456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.816987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256704, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.331827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.201923, "excess_performance": 0.258971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.401171, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.809025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 701832, "relative_activity": 1.746587, "balance": 3.809025, "dry_up": 1.301382, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110277, "annualized_volatility": 0.748684, "from_high_reference": -0.396369, "from_low_reference": 0.528117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.837, "fair_value_reference": 16.816987, "structural_low": 8.18, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008318, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.003333, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.290848, "worst_return": -0.184829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072488, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.089734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226883, "worst_return": -0.269261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.511508, "worst_return": -0.461369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.300644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.167251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.492306, "worst_return": 0.108982, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.493567, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26859, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101194, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037479, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.47522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.744, "volume": 2470, "typical_volume": 8145.75, "trend": 9.957667, "fair_value": 10.784626, "relative_strength": 11.546964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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10.280381, 10.689312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.85, "volume": 490236, "typical_volume": 318393.25, "trend": 11.532667, "fair_value": 16.812385, "relative_strength": -35.558584, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.373138, "energy": 14.407067, "activity_lines": [ 10.508, 10.600364, 10.319524, 10.629032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.46, "volume": 500948, "typical_volume": 338594.9, "trend": 11.313, "fair_value": 16.808205, "relative_strength": -35.048528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.359151, "energy": 11.487383, "activity_lines": [ 10.541333, 10.603091, 10.32081, 10.559828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.0, "volume": 542477, "typical_volume": 358595.85, "trend": 11.072, "fair_value": 16.803346, "relative_strength": -36.590964, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.097908, "energy": 13.935003, "activity_lines": [ 10.407333, 10.492182, 10.280333, 10.475118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.3, "volume": 346483, "typical_volume": 372915.9, "trend": 10.922667, "fair_value": 16.806897, "relative_strength": -28.607788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.474204, "energy": 4.128664, "activity_lines": [ 10.686667, 10.608545, 10.379381, 10.489828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.5, "volume": 701832, "typical_volume": 401830.45, "trend": 10.837, "fair_value": 16.816987, "relative_strength": -17.331827, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.678179, "energy": 37.505061, "activity_lines": [ 11.298, 10.924545, 10.595238, 10.591591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }