{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c12d3d26-239b-478b-9daf-276887f64d07", "symbol": "BOC", "name": "Bougainville Copper Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.732, "architecture_energy": 68.39, "architecture_maturity": 96.298, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 64.11, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.221667, 0.250364, 0.375786, 0.463914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.205, "trend_reference": 0.589, "distance_from_trend": -0.651952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.530096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.613278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.818364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.753012, "excess_performance": -0.816718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.651952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.613278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.812043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.718184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.600586, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.753012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 155732, "relative_activity": 0.758801, "balance": 0.304482, "dry_up": 1.025708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.393058, "annualized_volatility": 1.330666, "from_high_reference": -0.918972, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.589, "fair_value_reference": 0.530096, "structural_low": 0.205, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00164, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.472222, "worst_return": -0.634146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01087, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.077393, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.466667, "worst_return": -0.653543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.69863, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.663889, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.055556, "worst_return": -0.206522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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0.311333, 0.428364, 0.527119, 0.596731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.26, "volume": 602891, "typical_volume": 229041.15, "trend": 0.657333, "fair_value": 0.533942, "relative_strength": -64.168268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.405592, "energy": 89.949917, "activity_lines": [ 0.268333, 0.384091, 0.494452, 0.570215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.245, "volume": 256466, "typical_volume": 220879.9, "trend": 0.643833, "fair_value": 0.533045, "relative_strength": -65.875943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.250268, "energy": 88.380544, "activity_lines": [ 0.242667, 0.343909, 0.46269, 0.543613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23, "volume": 153959, "typical_volume": 209491.25, "trend": 0.629667, "fair_value": 0.532115, "relative_strength": -67.466773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.096146, "energy": 79.870201, "activity_lines": [ 0.238333, 0.308091, 0.432286, 0.516914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 275885, "typical_volume": 209459.55, "trend": 0.611833, "fair_value": 0.53109, "relative_strength": -69.855686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.134301, "energy": 69.334657, "activity_lines": [ 0.231333, 0.276909, 0.403119, 0.490161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.205, "volume": 155732, "typical_volume": 205234.35, "trend": 0.589, "fair_value": 0.530096, "relative_strength": -71.818364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.73175, "energy": 68.390118, "activity_lines": [ 0.221667, 0.250364, 0.375786, 0.463914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }