{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c137b633-eee4-44a0-bf25-454b3ace719d", "symbol": "PEPS", "name": "PARAMETRIC EQUITY PLUS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.441, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.927, "architecture_energy": 59.683, "architecture_maturity": 54.146, "architecture_confidence": 75.454, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.24, "rotation_up": 55.74, "upward_expansion": 82.92, "deceleration": 64.74, "rotation_down": 26.78, "downward_expansion": 9.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.4183, 32.231079, 31.823313, 31.196874 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.91, "trend_reference": 30.527802, "distance_from_trend": 0.078034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.438674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.858046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10339, "excess_performance": -0.084064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199402, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033462, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.437926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3015, "relative_activity": 1.369832, "balance": 4.437926, "dry_up": 0.612335, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021125, "annualized_volatility": 0.134906, "from_high_reference": -0.002727, "from_low_reference": 0.234511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.527802, "fair_value_reference": 27.438674, "structural_low": 27.1361, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013557, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014789, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.026537, "worst_return": 0.011371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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31.764334, 31.656505, 30.786459, 30.381279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.0943, "volume": 915, "typical_volume": 2436.7, "trend": 30.055121, "fair_value": 27.15644, "relative_strength": -4.057644, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.572057, "energy": 57.319684, "activity_lines": [ 31.846424, 31.781217, 30.972957, 30.51866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.54, "volume": 1421, "typical_volume": 2355.0, "trend": 30.164666, "fair_value": 27.217617, "relative_strength": -4.373891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.213739, "energy": 67.751141, "activity_lines": [ 32.096983, 31.951377, 31.188403, 30.678975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.0602, "volume": 703, "typical_volume": 2318.5, "trend": 30.256228, "fair_value": 27.272028, "relative_strength": -1.666412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.647308, "energy": 56.548412, "activity_lines": [ 32.120264, 31.998563, 31.344525, 30.801267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.8859, "volume": 368, "typical_volume": 2230.3, "trend": 30.330604, "fair_value": 27.323293, "relative_strength": -0.593581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.366896, "energy": 54.439928, "activity_lines": [ 32.061353, 31.996878, 31.472323, 30.906408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.3516, "volume": 1305, "typical_volume": 2202.45, "trend": 30.42877, "fair_value": 27.37855, "relative_strength": 0.309894, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.843925, "energy": 54.89488, "activity_lines": [ 32.1771, 32.068755, 31.630477, 31.036794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.91, "volume": 3015, "typical_volume": 2201.0, "trend": 30.527802, "fair_value": 27.438674, "relative_strength": -2.858046, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.927499, "energy": 59.683053, "activity_lines": [ 32.4183, 32.231079, 31.823313, 31.196874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }