{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c13918f7-d40f-4bcc-817d-367abb1582c2", "symbol": "SSLE", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Short Silver ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.618, "architecture_energy": 22.166, "architecture_maturity": 25.202, "architecture_confidence": 43.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.84, "rotation_up": 48.54, "upward_expansion": 42.24, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 24.09, "downward_expansion": 16.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.398167, 2.368564, 2.082698, 2.021455 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.894, "trend_reference": 2.121, "distance_from_trend": -0.107025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 271.48437, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.993024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -90.491224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098095, "excess_performance": -0.164374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732376, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.993024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.904912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098095, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.14901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1216, "relative_activity": 0.008636, "balance": 2.14901, "dry_up": 0.14485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.290127, "annualized_volatility": 1.563453, "from_high_reference": -0.977139, "from_low_reference": 1.004233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.121, "fair_value_reference": 271.48437, "structural_low": 0.945, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.319972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.600779, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245317, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.984936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.244666, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 880.608, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 881.952, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.424709, "energy": 23.077179, "activity_lines": [ 2.3007, 1.993909, 1.84425, 2.063851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9675, "volume": 1277, "typical_volume": 166008.45, "trend": 2.7597, "fair_value": 285.435524, "relative_strength": -87.960658, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 24.084726, "energy": 38.693449, "activity_lines": [ 2.568767, 2.206991, 1.956645, 2.054348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5075, "volume": 74300, "typical_volume": 158651.85, "trend": 2.489617, "fair_value": 281.038674, "relative_strength": -89.204335, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.692572, "energy": 41.87442, "activity_lines": [ 2.607, 2.311845, 2.01971, 2.038077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6425, "volume": 4791, "typical_volume": 154953.25, "trend": 2.304533, "fair_value": 276.48146, "relative_strength": -87.881403, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.744988, "energy": 53.877031, "activity_lines": [ 2.645667, 2.419455, 2.089152, 2.047941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.894, "volume": 1216, "typical_volume": 140807.65, "trend": 2.121, "fair_value": 271.48437, "relative_strength": -90.491224, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.618135, "energy": 22.166109, "activity_lines": [ 2.398167, 2.368564, 2.082698, 2.021455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }