{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c13ad9c6-0f91-4e38-b53e-1d28a9bd8d27", "symbol": "300434", "name": "Sichuan Goldstone Asia Pharmaceutical Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.786, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.74, "architecture_energy": 14.885, "architecture_maturity": 16.584, "architecture_confidence": 51.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.49, "rotation_up": 45.08, "upward_expansion": 46.49, "deceleration": 40.46, "rotation_down": 30.1, "downward_expansion": 11.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.69, 10.520553, 10.433448, 10.428835 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 10.479714, "distance_from_trend": 0.092587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.702373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.551037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069094, "excess_performance": 0.061695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092587, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032513, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04551, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.435893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95804100, "relative_activity": 1.404235, "balance": 0.435893, "dry_up": 1.976025, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107214, "annualized_volatility": 0.508501, "from_high_reference": -0.155605, "from_low_reference": 0.309938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.479714, "fair_value_reference": 9.702373, "structural_low": 8.74087, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.030033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026307, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.198939, "worst_return": -0.162983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086515, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064469, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.040354, "worst_return": -0.197949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03197, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032224, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.410314, "worst_return": -0.096251, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041026, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": 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"typical_volume": 46348851.05, "trend": 10.494381, "fair_value": 9.758767, "relative_strength": 1.745405, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.994652, "energy": 15.380561, "activity_lines": [ 10.63717, 10.259028, 10.364189, 10.411643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.91, "volume": 227848923, "typical_volume": 56744544.5, "trend": 10.497714, "fair_value": 9.743779, "relative_strength": 2.260691, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.654935, "energy": 17.66608, "activity_lines": [ 10.908667, 10.366116, 10.415659, 10.438457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.92, "volume": 135392185, "typical_volume": 61788276.05, "trend": 10.470714, "fair_value": 9.724451, "relative_strength": -6.877589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.76867, "energy": 21.598403, "activity_lines": [ 10.73, 10.303857, 10.372176, 10.401185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.89, "volume": 80212916, "typical_volume": 64479594.35, "trend": 10.440714, "fair_value": 9.707252, "relative_strength": -5.341168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.017358, "energy": 13.772809, "activity_lines": [ 10.479333, 10.262995, 10.327788, 10.36372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.45, "volume": 95804100, "typical_volume": 68225105.95, "trend": 10.479714, "fair_value": 9.702373, "relative_strength": 4.551037, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.739696, "energy": 14.884865, "activity_lines": [ 10.69, 10.520553, 10.433448, 10.428835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }