{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1457ef4-20c6-4cf7-91a8-fb49bbb6906a", "symbol": "IMPC", "name": "Impact Coatings AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.073, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.181, "architecture_energy": 24.392, "architecture_maturity": 75.044, "architecture_confidence": 89.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.8, "rotation_up": 22.27, "upward_expansion": 56.97, "deceleration": 91.01, "rotation_down": 33.82, "downward_expansion": 22.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.454667, 3.729636, 3.547286, 3.118946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.09, "trend_reference": 2.573833, "distance_from_trend": 0.200544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.733311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.068928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.06689, "excess_performance": 1.005395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.462502, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08316, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090689, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.06689, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750479, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236261, "relative_activity": 0.518338, "balance": 0.750479, "dry_up": 0.476023, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191187, "annualized_volatility": 0.941506, "from_high_reference": -0.353556, "from_low_reference": 1.686957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.573833, "fair_value_reference": 3.733311, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.134237, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141028, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.040404, "worst_return": -0.22807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.306397, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.318737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.306397, "worst_return": -0.306397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.373737, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.43599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.373737, "worst_return": -0.373737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.378788, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.422409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.378788, "worst_return": -0.378788, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.477387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.311448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.140777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003215, "active": false }, { "regime": 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3.004452, 2.585849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.25, "volume": 16816, "typical_volume": 463675.45, "trend": 2.2205, "fair_value": 3.804144, "relative_strength": 44.815783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.127547, "energy": 65.467686, "activity_lines": [ 4.214, 3.909091, 3.176048, 2.722656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.85, "volume": 319306, "typical_volume": 461990.65, "trend": 2.298333, "fair_value": 3.79126, "relative_strength": 34.807369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.586276, "energy": 58.001304, "activity_lines": [ 4.078, 3.959818, 3.29631, 2.827785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.0, "volume": 154532, "typical_volume": 463676.65, "trend": 2.381333, "fair_value": 3.78017, "relative_strength": 42.152356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.297496, "energy": 54.452476, "activity_lines": [ 4.042, 4.010364, 3.4195, 2.93757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.8, "volume": 154153, "typical_volume": 465252.65, "trend": 2.4585, "fair_value": 3.76799, "relative_strength": 34.233162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.200258, "energy": 43.442476, "activity_lines": [ 3.952667, 4.004364, 3.511571, 3.029097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.28, "volume": 322949, "typical_volume": 457303.9, "trend": 2.518833, "fair_value": 3.751965, "relative_strength": 16.516182, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.569297, "energy": 28.494128, "activity_lines": [ 3.703333, 3.887818, 3.542952, 3.082097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.09, "volume": 236261, "typical_volume": 455804.95, "trend": 2.573833, "fair_value": 3.733311, "relative_strength": 9.068928, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.181208, "energy": 24.391789, "activity_lines": [ 3.454667, 3.729636, 3.547286, 3.118946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }