{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c14afb58-1fb2-4043-84bd-69c795ace0fd", "symbol": "00684R", "name": "Yuanta S&P US Dollar 1x Inverse ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.604, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.88, "architecture_energy": 36.095, "architecture_maturity": 89.882, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.24, "rotation_up": 29.46, "upward_expansion": 19.78, "deceleration": 44.04, "rotation_down": 39.02, "downward_expansion": 67.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.005333, 14.978364, 15.07919, 15.166387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.17, "trend_reference": 15.291667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.449615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.97249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042902, "excess_performance": -0.422214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011208, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.119107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33000, "relative_activity": 0.412593, "balance": 0.119107, "dry_up": 0.296942, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009736, "annualized_volatility": 0.069665, "from_high_reference": -0.050688, "from_low_reference": 0.027778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.291667, "fair_value_reference": 15.449615, "structural_low": 14.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.002606, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.006822, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.035357, "worst_return": -0.048359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014462, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.023476, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.09543, "worst_return": -0.065921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003776, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.055079, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.05463, "worst_return": -0.110426, 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}, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015092, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", 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15.292194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.92, "volume": 126000, "typical_volume": 162632.0, "trend": 15.381333, "fair_value": 15.479808, "relative_strength": -35.308842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.872275, "energy": 86.608892, "activity_lines": [ 14.936, 15.04, 15.166381, 15.260989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.92, "volume": 43000, "typical_volume": 154082.0, "trend": 15.357333, "fair_value": 15.47359, "relative_strength": -30.32644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.32226, "energy": 85.851154, "activity_lines": [ 14.916667, 15.000727, 15.134952, 15.231226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.81, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 148232.0, "trend": 15.330333, "fair_value": 15.463205, "relative_strength": -31.524464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.209541, "energy": 83.218811, "activity_lines": [ 14.872667, 14.951455, 15.096238, 15.195914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.01, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 143332.0, "trend": 15.307333, "fair_value": 15.455449, "relative_strength": -28.820074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.179421, "energy": 55.917908, "activity_lines": [ 14.920667, 14.948182, 15.079476, 15.175247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.17, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 79982.0, "trend": 15.291667, "fair_value": 15.449615, "relative_strength": -28.97249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.879514, "energy": 36.095295, "activity_lines": [ 15.005333, 14.978364, 15.07919, 15.166387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }