{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c14d703d-8779-42c4-9859-d574ce95571c", "symbol": "XG12", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global Circular Economy UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.78, "architecture_energy": 34.998, "architecture_maturity": 70.425, "architecture_confidence": 93.581, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.92, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 59.23, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 22.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.244667, 46.506091, 46.213512, 44.58401 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.355, "trend_reference": 42.363833, "distance_from_trend": 0.117817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.065577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.906877, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.245529, "excess_performance": 0.194293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102373, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.119069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.245529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.327131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1817, "relative_activity": 6.013569, "balance": 1.327131, "dry_up": 3.272381, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028049, "annualized_volatility": 0.197743, "from_high_reference": -0.023357, "from_low_reference": 0.45428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.363833, "fair_value_reference": 33.065577, "structural_low": 35.8325, "invalidation": "A 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094601, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.104719, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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32.727484, "relative_strength": 16.473027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.466722, "energy": 58.933807, "activity_lines": [ 47.111499, 47.238318, 45.322559, 43.420322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.099998, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 128.4, "trend": 41.302333, "fair_value": 32.80375, "relative_strength": 10.749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.172034, "energy": 44.600125, "activity_lines": [ 46.365499, 46.886636, 45.51544, 43.686914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.18, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 168.4, "trend": 41.66825, "fair_value": 32.884647, "relative_strength": 11.591428, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.838783, "energy": 40.411047, "activity_lines": [ 46.154166, 46.740545, 45.78119, 44.001602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.330002, "volume": 1138, "typical_volume": 211.3, "trend": 41.989417, "fair_value": 32.964695, "relative_strength": 7.848392, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.824438, "energy": 29.532948, "activity_lines": [ 45.813334, 46.427409, 45.921333, 44.237844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.355, "volume": 1817, "typical_volume": 302.15, "trend": 42.363833, "fair_value": 33.065577, "relative_strength": 11.906877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.780395, "energy": 34.997571, "activity_lines": [ 46.244667, 46.506091, 46.213512, 44.58401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }