{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1623c99-3b65-46ba-9a53-536a7a9f46bd", "symbol": "600682", "name": "Nanjing Xinjiekou Department Store Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.278, "architecture_energy": 42.126, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.502, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.84, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 45.86, "downward_expansion": 70.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.519333, 5.510909, 5.772143, 6.085312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.64, "trend_reference": 6.565, "distance_from_trend": -0.140899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.769701, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.303895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211189, "excess_performance": -0.167985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211189, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63645014, "relative_activity": 0.890131, "balance": 0.742036, "dry_up": 1.122729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076241, "annualized_volatility": 0.306859, "from_high_reference": -0.411273, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.565, "fair_value_reference": 6.769701, "structural_low": 5.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.009996, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.007642, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.169524, "worst_return": -0.229223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002207, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.005307, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.496048, "worst_return": -0.200778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04084, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.091156, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.195674, "worst_return": -0.190597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.42, "volume": 102393485, "typical_volume": 75539571.05, "trend": 6.867333, "fair_value": 6.814426, "relative_strength": -21.331879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.878466, "energy": 73.744354, "activity_lines": [ 5.437333, 5.571273, 5.982333, 6.328086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.27, "volume": 87843337, "typical_volume": 74919087.4, "trend": 6.757333, "fair_value": 6.798507, "relative_strength": -24.148137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.785196, "energy": 64.873158, "activity_lines": [ 5.364667, 5.495455, 5.880524, 6.225032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.62, "volume": 67221930, "typical_volume": 74184325.3, "trend": 6.668333, "fair_value": 6.784579, "relative_strength": -18.951348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.509822, "energy": 53.824975, "activity_lines": [ 5.450667, 5.499636, 5.821667, 6.151656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.64, "volume": 63645014, "typical_volume": 71500731.5, "trend": 6.565, "fair_value": 6.769701, "relative_strength": -20.303895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.278341, "energy": 42.12648, "activity_lines": [ 5.519333, 5.510909, 5.772143, 6.085312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }