{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c16336be-f2ea-4987-97eb-a31161c9d2de", "symbol": "NPCE", "name": "Neuropace Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.006, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.41, "architecture_energy": 31.148, "architecture_maturity": 19.351, "architecture_confidence": 54.282, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.52, "rotation_up": 18.37, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 51.47, "rotation_down": 52.81, "downward_expansion": 42.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.627333, 15.245455, 15.702381, 15.562215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.83, "trend_reference": 15.478333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041887, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.545513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.838743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053606, "excess_performance": -0.241059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053606, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1631232, "relative_activity": 1.73942, "balance": 0.648038, "dry_up": 1.213055, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134056, "annualized_volatility": 0.539372, "from_high_reference": -0.243367, "from_low_reference": 0.960992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.478333, "fair_value_reference": 11.545513, "structural_low": 12.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034314, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.088907, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.151807, "worst_return": -0.129683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.627432, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.563049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.022059, "worst_return": -0.045149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.826242, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.684594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.058824, "worst_return": 0.59366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.543613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.180785, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.585784, "worst_return": 0.501441, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.411807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.14077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.640867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.636109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.373869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", 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15.68671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.14, "volume": 630112, "typical_volume": 940371.4, "trend": 15.644333, "fair_value": 11.195128, "relative_strength": 4.133776, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.265372, "energy": 13.363775, "activity_lines": [ 16.032667, 16.160364, 15.927095, 15.718129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.11, "volume": 862342, "typical_volume": 946002.6, "trend": 15.675, "fair_value": 11.277949, "relative_strength": 7.823147, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.661983, "energy": 24.766302, "activity_lines": [ 16.428, 16.292, 16.084571, 15.812688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.08, "volume": 536626, "typical_volume": 940012.75, "trend": 15.658, "fair_value": 11.354551, "relative_strength": 5.090779, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.686402, "energy": 22.158436, "activity_lines": [ 16.388667, 16.235636, 16.130762, 15.838817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.81, "volume": 1157094, "typical_volume": 905811.95, "trend": 15.617667, "fair_value": 11.423269, "relative_strength": -2.129273, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.28894, "energy": 3.562979, "activity_lines": [ 15.896667, 15.989636, 16.048857, 15.784108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.89, "volume": 1225469, "typical_volume": 909280.65, "trend": 15.541667, "fair_value": 11.479295, "relative_strength": -15.462711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.506218, "energy": 31.663785, "activity_lines": [ 14.819333, 15.404545, 15.780381, 15.608129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.83, "volume": 1631232, "typical_volume": 937802.05, "trend": 15.478333, "fair_value": 11.545513, "relative_strength": -7.838743, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.410213, "energy": 31.148374, "activity_lines": [ 14.627333, 15.245455, 15.702381, 15.562215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }