{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1640e55-19e3-4140-ab4b-6b3dd2488ff7", "symbol": "6013", "name": "Development Works Food Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.372, "architecture_energy": 16.391, "architecture_maturity": 28.173, "architecture_confidence": 72.637, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.06, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 22.39, "deceleration": 64.23, "rotation_down": 46.96, "downward_expansion": 53.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.989999, 94.45, 93.604048, 93.469355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 91.599998, "trend_reference": 94.535, "distance_from_trend": -0.031047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 117.619552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.359191, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104594, "excess_performance": -0.072765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032149, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123009, "relative_activity": 0.679922, "balance": 0.462025, "dry_up": 0.706091, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071297, "annualized_volatility": 0.276213, "from_high_reference": -0.38811, "from_low_reference": 0.115713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.535, "fair_value_reference": 117.619552, "structural_low": 82.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010697, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.005583, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087948, "worst_return": -0.227329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103817, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070032, "worst_return": -0.230675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.131696, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022901, "worst_return": -0.240491, "sufficient": false }, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032368, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", 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21.259576, "energy": 25.205587, "activity_lines": [ 97.0, 94.626364, 93.412381, 94.129893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 96.900002, "volume": 241710, "typical_volume": 179585.4, "trend": 96.246667, "fair_value": 118.897436, "relative_strength": -6.80941, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.558622, "energy": 28.337976, "activity_lines": [ 97.240001, 95.358182, 93.826667, 94.147312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.099998, "volume": 84609, "typical_volume": 178335.3, "trend": 95.723334, "fair_value": 118.46859, "relative_strength": -10.005892, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.341288, "energy": 17.31195, "activity_lines": [ 96.223333, 95.496364, 93.946905, 94.008818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.75, "volume": 61645, "typical_volume": 175442.85, "trend": 94.988334, "fair_value": 118.0375, "relative_strength": -11.309228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.717087, "energy": 10.42198, "activity_lines": [ 94.316667, 94.943636, 93.734286, 93.687957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.599998, "volume": 123009, "typical_volume": 180916.25, "trend": 94.535, "fair_value": 117.619552, "relative_strength": -12.359191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.371906, "energy": 16.391065, "activity_lines": [ 92.989999, 94.45, 93.604048, 93.469355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }