{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c16766d8-feac-4ac2-adb3-382f429321f8",
    "symbol": "CC1U",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI China Tech UCITS ETF USD",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 86.909,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -63.149,
    "architecture_energy": 53.92,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.534,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.656,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.28,
        "rotation_up": 17.01,
        "upward_expansion": 7.8,
        "deceleration": 59.14,
        "rotation_down": 63.87,
        "downward_expansion": 81.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        316.013328,
        317.216361,
        325.65357,
        329.590752
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 326.0,
    "trend_reference": 335.948334,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.029613,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 274.320201,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188392,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.576095,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.06416,
    "excess_performance": -0.117471,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029613,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023591,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.188392,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.089718,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.105761,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.152147,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06416,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.368162,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 865,
      "relative_activity": 1.143046,
      "balance": 0.368162,
      "dry_up": 1.487942,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029129,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.198671,
      "from_high_reference": -0.144694,
      "from_low_reference": 0.106397
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 335.948334,
      "fair_value_reference": 274.320201,
      "structural_low": 301.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": -0.011542,
        "positive_rate": 0.413793,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.586207,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011019,
        "regime_survival": 0.793103,
        "best_return": 0.305184,
        "worst_return": -0.098062,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.014673,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.363636,
        "median_excess_return": -0.060228,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.251882,
        "worst_return": -0.135609,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.022011,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.054627,
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        "worst_return": -0.192553,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.263369,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-10-18",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "direction": -16.974947,
        "energy": 25.367233,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 44,
        "typical_volume": 279.3,
        "trend": 345.042045,
        "fair_value": 271.49456,
        "relative_strength": 4.638651,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 485.5,
        "trend": 345.118712,
        "fair_value": 271.816355,
        "relative_strength": 6.193937,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": 15.896307,
        "energy": 21.180071,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 2146,
        "typical_volume": 580.55,
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        "relative_strength": 2.105618,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 598.3,
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        "relative_strength": 1.810254,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 13,
        "typical_volume": 592.65,
        "trend": 343.303336,
        "fair_value": 272.870521,
        "relative_strength": -2.282384,
        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 342.530002,
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        "relative_strength": -4.817375,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 40,
        "typical_volume": 584.95,
        "trend": 341.558335,
        "fair_value": 273.50706,
        "relative_strength": -9.62615,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -83.297528,
        "energy": 80.299348,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 318.200012,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 575.25,
        "trend": 340.978336,
        "fair_value": 273.70097,
        "relative_strength": -10.588804,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.070353,
        "energy": 84.439731,
        "activity_lines": [
          323.330005,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 948,
        "typical_volume": 613.9,
        "trend": 340.330002,
        "fair_value": 273.84488,
        "relative_strength": -8.384154,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.827316,
        "energy": 84.904638,
        "activity_lines": [
          321.216671,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 302.149994,
        "volume": 2278,
        "typical_volume": 699.75,
        "trend": 339.148335,
        "fair_value": 273.952893,
        "relative_strength": -13.4589,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -93.972723,
        "energy": 96.882166,
        "activity_lines": [
          314.060002,
          322.028183,
          329.972858,
          333.779786
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 306.899994,
        "volume": 1175,
        "typical_volume": 731.9,
        "trend": 338.001668,
        "fair_value": 273.958983,
        "relative_strength": -12.418199,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.818487,
        "energy": 91.074097,
        "activity_lines": [
          310.413332,
          318.059091,
          327.517857,
          331.699248
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 316.299988,
        "volume": 186,
        "typical_volume": 729.6,
        "trend": 336.980001,
        "fair_value": 274.033983,
        "relative_strength": -11.17017,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.02129,
        "energy": 80.328992,
        "activity_lines": [
          311.583327,
          316.525452,
          326.064522,
          330.299139
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 326.0,
        "volume": 865,
        "typical_volume": 756.75,
        "trend": 335.948334,
        "fair_value": 274.320201,
        "relative_strength": -10.576095,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.149245,
        "energy": 53.919673,
        "activity_lines": [
          316.013328,
          317.216361,
          325.65357,
          329.590752
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}