{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c16855fd-d0cf-4432-9bf6-e7085b39fc19", "symbol": "XBM", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Global Base Metals Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.918, "architecture_energy": 11.413, "architecture_maturity": 11.05, "architecture_confidence": 47.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.59, "rotation_up": 22.7, "upward_expansion": 15.99, "deceleration": 59.43, "rotation_down": 47.35, "downward_expansion": 40.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.707334, 34.846867, 35.522548, 35.254722 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.490002, "trend_reference": 34.972203, "distance_from_trend": 0.071994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.377483, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.60368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.925434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088244, "excess_performance": -0.032177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.60368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079254, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.458823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000200, "relative_activity": 3.366543, "balance": 1.458823, "dry_up": 1.611074, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071384, "annualized_volatility": 0.45435, "from_high_reference": -0.054402, "from_low_reference": 0.811285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.972203, "fair_value_reference": 23.377483, "structural_low": 28.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013534, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033848, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.144884, "worst_return": -0.102463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137999, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.133731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056642, "worst_return": -0.211529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03187, "worst_return": -0.054579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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33.230408, "energy": 20.962214, "activity_lines": [ 36.792807, 36.874015, 35.96496, 35.299641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.220001, "volume": 8600, "typical_volume": 291180.0, "trend": 34.263805, "fair_value": 22.915128, "relative_strength": 6.837784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.470331, "energy": 15.47238, "activity_lines": [ 36.087843, 36.620995, 35.958216, 35.377388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.25, "volume": 190700, "typical_volume": 283320.0, "trend": 34.475041, "fair_value": 23.008432, "relative_strength": 3.299605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.066465, "energy": 15.336178, "activity_lines": [ 35.336079, 36.195144, 35.858759, 35.376497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 367500, "typical_volume": 285195.0, "trend": 34.579399, "fair_value": 23.089506, "relative_strength": -3.362183, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.016441, "energy": 32.949163, "activity_lines": [ 34.011659, 35.379997, 35.561016, 35.223269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.650002, "volume": 270900, "typical_volume": 275215.0, "trend": 34.703202, "fair_value": 23.174927, "relative_strength": 0.612027, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.083796, "energy": 32.430534, "activity_lines": [ 33.633334, 34.932097, 35.437701, 35.163307 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.439999, "volume": 276000, "typical_volume": 270480.0, "trend": 34.809869, "fair_value": 23.261485, "relative_strength": -0.042546, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.576458, "energy": 37.149609, "activity_lines": [ 33.454667, 34.491129, 35.290482, 35.08181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.490002, "volume": 1000200, "typical_volume": 297100.0, "trend": 34.972203, "fair_value": 23.377483, "relative_strength": 7.925434, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.918262, "energy": 11.41345, "activity_lines": [ 34.707334, 34.846867, 35.522548, 35.254722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }