{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c17992e7-c8db-4ff8-b089-c86b8208bee5", "symbol": "EENG", "name": "BNP Paribas EASY ECPI Global ESG Infrastructure UCITS ETF EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.173, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.928, "architecture_energy": 31.507, "architecture_maturity": 46.787, "architecture_confidence": 78.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 37.02, "upward_expansion": 57.6, "deceleration": 87.85, "rotation_down": 26.12, "downward_expansion": 18.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.860666, 101.871272, 101.610142, 100.719053 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 102.839996, "trend_reference": 99.142666, "distance_from_trend": 0.037293, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 81.740481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.068121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085383, "excess_performance": -0.085509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037293, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.303168, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23933, "relative_activity": 1.339696, "balance": 1.303168, "dry_up": 1.098575, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015551, "annualized_volatility": 0.104477, "from_high_reference": -0.010773, "from_low_reference": 0.254146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.142666, "fair_value_reference": 81.740481, "structural_low": 93.370003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016718, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016718, "worst_return": 0.016718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.040775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040775, "worst_return": 0.040775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.177941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020238, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 65.235199, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 64.875504, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 66.0243, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"relative_strength": -5.26927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.225708, "energy": 23.733197, "activity_lines": [ 101.461334, 101.683091, 101.385237, 100.456795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.839996, "volume": 23933, "typical_volume": 17864.5, "trend": 99.142666, "fair_value": 81.740481, "relative_strength": -6.068121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.927832, "energy": 31.506618, "activity_lines": [ 101.860666, 101.871272, 101.610142, 100.719053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }