{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c17c5545-bed9-490a-956a-aa3afad4cf20", "symbol": "002378", "name": "Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.135, "architecture_energy": 65.669, "architecture_maturity": 11.449, "architecture_confidence": 52.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.04, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 23.08, "deceleration": 43.04, "rotation_down": 70.08, "downward_expansion": 62.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.293333, 27.140991, 29.100979, 30.062154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.030001, "trend_reference": 29.805086, "distance_from_trend": -0.093108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.743323, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.301734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.746879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186047, "excess_performance": 0.178647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.301734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.120372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.187469, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653736, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300152513, "relative_activity": 1.172168, "balance": 0.653736, "dry_up": 0.816874, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16138, "annualized_volatility": 0.854684, "from_high_reference": -0.44176, "from_low_reference": 2.013378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.805086, "fair_value_reference": 11.743323, "structural_low": 20.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007006, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074695, "worst_return": -0.088496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.112908, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.059756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353659, "worst_return": -0.085177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0612, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.074045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245387, "worst_return": -0.271018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 283765578.25, "trend": 29.144419, "fair_value": 11.505193, "relative_strength": 4.08069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.453383, "energy": 54.984723, "activity_lines": [ 25.842666, 28.99675, 30.299289, 30.660294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.219999, "volume": 143013808, "typical_volume": 259309840.35, "trend": 29.376752, "fair_value": 11.608589, "relative_strength": 4.221033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.297666, "energy": 71.541871, "activity_lines": [ 23.800666, 27.57033, 29.436087, 30.213557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.030001, "volume": 300152513, "typical_volume": 256066017.85, "trend": 29.805086, "fair_value": 11.743323, "relative_strength": 18.746879, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.134977, "energy": 65.669269, "activity_lines": [ 24.293333, 27.140991, 29.100979, 30.062154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }