{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c17eba88-b6e6-4770-a9b7-92350ee174c6", "symbol": "PRIM", "name": "Primorus Investments plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.443, "architecture_energy": 35.089, "architecture_maturity": 8.221, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.79, "rotation_up": 15.03, "upward_expansion": 5.83, "deceleration": 42.56, "rotation_down": 55.38, "downward_expansion": 81.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0346, 0.035391, 0.035833, 0.0361 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.036867, "distance_from_trend": -0.077758, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.034526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.420944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128205, "excess_performance": -0.17944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02812, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.176358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129273, "relative_activity": 0.314164, "balance": 0.176358, "dry_up": 0.378345, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162353, "annualized_volatility": 0.145472, "from_high_reference": -0.244444, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036867, "fair_value_reference": 0.034526, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006278, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.529469, "worst_return": -0.234392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.122298, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.054716, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.574099, "worst_return": -0.31428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026781, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.941224, "worst_return": -0.18574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.0363, 0.036445, 0.036355, 0.036646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.035, "volume": 165023, "typical_volume": 398417.3, "trend": 0.037167, "fair_value": 0.034393, "relative_strength": -14.891767, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.74089, "energy": 21.755583, "activity_lines": [ 0.0358, 0.036191, 0.036238, 0.036499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.034, "volume": 293858, "typical_volume": 409919.25, "trend": 0.037017, "fair_value": 0.034459, "relative_strength": -17.751747, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.871712, "energy": 30.864655, "activity_lines": [ 0.0351, 0.035773, 0.036031, 0.036295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 129273, "typical_volume": 411482.65, "trend": 0.036867, "fair_value": 0.034526, "relative_strength": -17.420944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.442523, "energy": 35.089062, "activity_lines": [ 0.0346, 0.035391, 0.035833, 0.0361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }