{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c180af96-e4d6-49bf-ad74-a1879786156d", "symbol": "JEST", "name": "JPM EUR Ultra-Short Income Active UCITS ETF \u2013 EUR (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.45, "architecture_energy": 79.795, "architecture_maturity": 35.061, "architecture_confidence": 76.773, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.98, "rotation_up": 71.19, "upward_expansion": 94.28, "deceleration": 44.66, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 16.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.205332, 110.13009, 109.923618, 109.749225 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 110.294998, "trend_reference": 109.535333, "distance_from_trend": 0.006935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.010224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.503671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010398, "excess_performance": -0.160494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000359, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40264, "relative_activity": 0.728185, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.346601, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001503, "annualized_volatility": 0.00521, "from_high_reference": -0.000408, "from_low_reference": 0.022339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.535333, "fair_value_reference": 106.010224, "structural_low": 108.684998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.002596, "positive_rate": 0.978261, "directional_follow_through": 0.978261, "median_excess_return": -0.016698, "regime_survival": 0.978261, "best_return": 0.004545, "worst_return": -0.002287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008092, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037997, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013149, "worst_return": 0.001148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013987, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.111361, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022382, "worst_return": 0.010627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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109.268333, "fair_value": 105.623045, "relative_strength": -12.025244, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.901757, "energy": 84.594503, "activity_lines": [ 109.890333, 109.762909, 109.569453, 109.445774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 110.099998, "volume": 8767, "typical_volume": 56602.15, "trend": 109.312833, "fair_value": 105.688654, "relative_strength": -14.140271, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.123066, "energy": 90.91891, "activity_lines": [ 109.976666, 109.842273, 109.632524, 109.49943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 110.114998, "volume": 71354, "typical_volume": 56117.1, "trend": 109.358333, "fair_value": 105.753686, "relative_strength": -13.384481, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.935225, "energy": 90.27906, "activity_lines": [ 110.043665, 109.912818, 109.692928, 109.551183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 110.135002, "volume": 55420, "typical_volume": 54710.6, "trend": 109.403833, "fair_value": 105.818237, "relative_strength": -11.757781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.066539, "energy": 89.752966, "activity_lines": [ 110.092666, 109.974727, 109.75131, 109.60129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.139999, "volume": 108237, "typical_volume": 56374.35, "trend": 109.447, "fair_value": 105.882276, "relative_strength": -11.246694, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.623304, "energy": 87.592531, "activity_lines": [ 110.121999, 110.025272, 109.806214, 109.648785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.199997, "volume": 93913, "typical_volume": 56758.25, "trend": 109.491167, "fair_value": 105.946026, "relative_strength": -11.410033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.304633, "energy": 81.769384, "activity_lines": [ 110.152999, 110.074544, 109.862857, 109.697365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.294998, "volume": 40264, "typical_volume": 55293.65, "trend": 109.535333, "fair_value": 106.010224, "relative_strength": -13.503671, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.450454, "energy": 79.795366, "activity_lines": [ 110.205332, 110.13009, 109.923618, 109.749225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }