{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1847b3f-17a5-49b3-a138-189a972e43f1", "symbol": "LSGR", "name": "NATIXIS ETF TR II LOOMIS SAYLES FOCUSED GROWTH ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.522, "architecture_energy": 17.92, "architecture_maturity": 19.583, "architecture_confidence": 74.801, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.29, "rotation_up": 38.79, "upward_expansion": 54.81, "deceleration": 79.7, "rotation_down": 22.86, "downward_expansion": 20.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.154, 42.885818, 43.261579, 42.946797 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.92, "trend_reference": 42.757417, "distance_from_trend": 0.050578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.844714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219171, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.684293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063195, "excess_performance": -0.06243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050578, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011004, "read": "Falling" 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"invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007308, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004387, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.000701, "worst_return": -0.015316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.078047, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078047, "worst_return": 0.078047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063195, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06243, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.063195, "worst_return": 0.063195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 417212.7, "trend": 42.757417, "fair_value": 36.844714, "relative_strength": -7.684293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.522426, "energy": 17.919706, "activity_lines": [ 43.154, 42.885818, 43.261579, 42.946797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }