{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c189606a-3de7-4ddb-94dc-2a347ff8a0cd", "symbol": "MBIO", "name": "Mustang Bio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.414, "architecture_energy": 54.778, "architecture_maturity": 85.408, "architecture_confidence": 92.841, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.01, "rotation_up": 13.69, "upward_expansion": 10.54, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 60.33, "downward_expansion": 81.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.595353, 0.630571, 0.656399, 0.698299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.6007, "trend_reference": 0.76776, "distance_from_trend": -0.217594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.412197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.973198, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -50.091545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.236916, "excess_performance": -0.424369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.973198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011617, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.500915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.29881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191319, "relative_activity": 0.403462, "balance": 0.29881, "dry_up": 0.34965, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189484, "annualized_volatility": 0.626465, "from_high_reference": -0.680479, "from_low_reference": 0.144193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.76776, "fair_value_reference": 22.412197, "structural_low": 0.524999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 55, "median_return": -0.106557, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.067562, "regime_survival": 0.927273, "best_return": 2.327273, "worst_return": -0.78332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.239429, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.31156, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.590476, "worst_return": -0.833135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.522992, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.605641, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.192857, "worst_return": -0.873874, "sufficient": true 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.348971, "energy": 43.076685, "activity_lines": [ 0.636193, 0.658809, 0.678633, 0.725304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5702, "volume": 191460, "typical_volume": 476709.9, "trend": 0.786403, "fair_value": 23.86027, "relative_strength": -51.375032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.662272, "energy": 53.259745, "activity_lines": [ 0.606253, 0.641355, 0.665178, 0.71028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6007, "volume": 191319, "typical_volume": 474193.9, "trend": 0.76776, "fair_value": 22.412197, "relative_strength": -50.091545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.414339, "energy": 54.777602, "activity_lines": [ 0.595353, 0.630571, 0.656399, 0.698299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }