{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c18a5a1c-2fd7-4e8f-8a8d-1934c1a32e66", "symbol": "SBB-B", "name": "Samh\u00e4llsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.403, "architecture_energy": 31.744, "architecture_maturity": 59.153, "architecture_confidence": 87.681, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.35, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 4.83, "deceleration": 51.63, "rotation_down": 50.52, "downward_expansion": 73.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.311867, 3.343891, 3.365614, 3.485286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.417, "trend_reference": 3.7515, "distance_from_trend": -0.089164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.328142, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210516, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.461683, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.282595, "excess_performance": -0.344089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284617, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113257, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282595, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.486689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31814565, "relative_activity": 0.656123, "balance": 1.486689, "dry_up": 1.038316, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110781, "annualized_volatility": 0.575261, "from_high_reference": -0.41329, "from_low_reference": 0.135216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.7515, "fair_value_reference": 4.328142, "structural_low": 3.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.007915, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.01692, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.582012, "worst_return": -0.341842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.159577, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.172082, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.802568, "worst_return": -0.597728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.542669, "worst_return": -0.695708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.403946, "activity_lines": [ 3.4412, 3.384455, 3.419567, 3.596039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.145, "volume": 57944264, "typical_volume": 48918589.4, "trend": 3.854467, "fair_value": 4.328155, "relative_strength": -33.515893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.514941, "energy": 22.105711, "activity_lines": [ 3.350067, 3.341255, 3.385043, 3.547095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.283, "volume": 39379435, "typical_volume": 49196321.6, "trend": 3.803567, "fair_value": 4.327453, "relative_strength": -30.741232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.786427, "energy": 28.479357, "activity_lines": [ 3.303667, 3.324145, 3.367381, 3.510226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.417, "volume": 31814565, "typical_volume": 48488717.2, "trend": 3.7515, "fair_value": 4.328142, "relative_strength": -28.461683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.403289, "energy": 31.743521, "activity_lines": [ 3.311867, 3.343891, 3.365614, 3.485286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }