{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c18c56c1-246a-4ab8-afe4-8abca9f1ce2a", "symbol": "BGRO", "name": "BlackRock Large Cap Growth ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.233, "architecture_energy": 43.393, "architecture_maturity": 43.037, "architecture_confidence": 51.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.14, "rotation_up": 41.98, "upward_expansion": 69.94, "deceleration": 72.32, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 10.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.344367, 42.151049, 41.828239, 40.743989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.7869, "trend_reference": 39.535367, "distance_from_trend": 0.107537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.717399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.566656, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177244, "excess_performance": -0.010209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3526, "relative_activity": 0.899639, "balance": 1.297406, "dry_up": 0.781826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034544, "annualized_volatility": 0.215044, "from_high_reference": -0.015804, "from_low_reference": 0.318541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.535367, "fair_value_reference": 35.717399, "structural_low": 33.2086, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068643, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", 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35.591929, "relative_strength": -2.639016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.42516, "energy": 32.811999, "activity_lines": [ 41.714127, 41.905078, 41.342, 40.302166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.7005, "volume": 1580, "typical_volume": 3784.85, "trend": 39.375277, "fair_value": 35.645987, "relative_strength": -1.634358, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.548728, "energy": 27.874063, "activity_lines": [ 41.695927, 41.834971, 41.499573, 40.459369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.7869, "volume": 3526, "typical_volume": 3919.35, "trend": 39.535367, "fair_value": 35.717399, "relative_strength": -1.566656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.233237, "energy": 43.392698, "activity_lines": [ 42.344367, 42.151049, 41.828239, 40.743989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }