{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c19ef3c6-64ac-4654-ad82-5804a4257d84", "symbol": "FSLR34", "name": "First Solar, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.512, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.379, "architecture_energy": 15.779, "architecture_maturity": 53.725, "architecture_confidence": 71.857, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.08, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 68.56, "rotation_down": 54.79, "downward_expansion": 41.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.060135, 58.470219, 59.688229, 58.296179 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 63.900002, "trend_reference": 57.603767, "distance_from_trend": 0.109302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.647615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.752886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119089, "excess_performance": 0.176138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21373, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179358, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007529, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215217, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2939, "relative_activity": 0.926954, "balance": 1.094825, "dry_up": 0.885637, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105429, "annualized_volatility": 0.592007, "from_high_reference": -0.206901, "from_low_reference": 0.362328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.603767, "fair_value_reference": 52.647615, "structural_low": 46.904999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.01806, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023642, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.180584, "worst_return": -0.132731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005041, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257079, "worst_return": -0.299587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108581, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.074483, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.130272, "worst_return": -0.381003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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52.515737, "relative_strength": -18.799424, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.156188, "energy": 35.888821, "activity_lines": [ 55.387334, 59.931127, 59.384857, 58.189686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.700001, "volume": 4373, "typical_volume": 3623.65, "trend": 57.620567, "fair_value": 52.55843, "relative_strength": -17.934818, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.742466, "energy": 33.428847, "activity_lines": [ 54.240401, 58.174309, 59.054757, 57.891054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.900002, "volume": 2939, "typical_volume": 3170.6, "trend": 57.603767, "fair_value": 52.647615, "relative_strength": 0.752886, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.379266, "energy": 15.778911, "activity_lines": [ 57.060135, 58.470219, 59.688229, 58.296179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }