{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1a225ef-ed04-4a2c-a3f9-98467092b326", "symbol": "DBAN", "name": "Deutsche Beteiligungs AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.465, "architecture_energy": 85.447, "architecture_maturity": 19.614, "architecture_confidence": 86.689, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.53, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 81.61, "downward_expansion": 98.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.35, 21.835454, 22.695056, 23.070595 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.25, "trend_reference": 23.485094, "distance_from_trend": -0.095171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.741324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.355339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114361, "excess_performance": -0.179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019378, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33093, "relative_activity": 0.618568, "balance": 0.368217, "dry_up": 1.015381, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038181, "annualized_volatility": 0.150177, "from_high_reference": -0.159735, "from_low_reference": 0.024096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.485094, "fair_value_reference": 23.741324, "structural_low": 20.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.00994, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.00507, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.161638, "worst_return": -0.144804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010811, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.000999, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.24424, "worst_return": -0.073705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002312, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277091, "worst_return": -0.012613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 21.75, "volume": 47347, "typical_volume": 62906.9, "trend": 23.797881, "fair_value": 23.852059, "relative_strength": -10.072355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.985174, "energy": 85.572339, "activity_lines": [ 22.143333, 22.740386, 23.330455, 23.545209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 101354, "typical_volume": 63740.85, "trend": 23.706483, "fair_value": 23.816128, "relative_strength": -12.645312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.71235, "energy": 88.749012, "activity_lines": [ 21.746666, 22.393301, 23.112182, 23.384055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.2, "volume": 35495, "typical_volume": 58662.9, "trend": 23.602153, "fair_value": 23.777576, "relative_strength": -14.590298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.919455, "energy": 88.290942, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 22.080506, 22.895157, 23.222347 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.25, "volume": 33093, "typical_volume": 53499.35, "trend": 23.485094, "fair_value": 23.741324, "relative_strength": -16.355339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.464878, "energy": 85.447163, "activity_lines": [ 21.35, 21.835454, 22.695056, 23.070595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }